Papers

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SocArXiv papers

  • Are Early Stage Investors Biased Against Women?
    We study whether early stage investors have gender biases using a proprietary dataset from An- gelList that allows us to observe private interactions between investors and fundraising startups. We find that male investors express less interest in female entrepreneurs compared to observably similar male entrepreneurs. In contrast, female investors express more interest in female entrepreneurs. These findings do not appear to be driven by within-gender screening/monitoring advantages or gender differences in risk preferences. Moreover, the male-led startups that male investors express interest in do not outperform the female-led startups they express interest in--they underperform. Overall, the evidence is consistent with gender biases.
  • Of Rules and Role Models: How Perceptions of Parents' Mediation and Modelling Contribute to Individuals' Media Innovativeness
    Parental mediation and modelling are important factors in the development of media-related behaviors. This study explores their role for media innovation adoption. Results of a representative CATI survey (n = 434) show that perceived parental media innovativeness and mediation are related to media innovativeness at later life stages. The amount of time spent on media innovations follows the parental role-model--but only if parents also engaged in active mediation. Restrictive mediation contributes to a greater investment of money in media innovations. Individuals spend particularly little money on new media if parents were conservative media users and did not make restrictions.
  • Resources and Governance in Sierra Leone's Civil War
    We empirically investigate the role of natural resources, and governance in explaining variation in the intensity of conflict during the 1991-2002 civil war in Sierra Leone. As a proxy for governance quality we exploit exogenous variation in political competition at the level of the chieftaincy. As a proxy for resources we use data on the location of pre-war mining sites. Our main result is that neither governance nor resources robustly explains the onset or duration of violence during the civil war in Sierra Leone.
  • Traditional Leaders and the 2014-2015 Ebola Epidemic
    We assess the role of traditional authorities during an acute health crisis, the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone. We exploit plausible exogenous variation in the political competition for local chieftaincy positions and find evidence that traditional leaders helped shape the course of the epidemic. Locations with more "powerful" chiefs experienced substantially fewer recorded Ebola cases. We argue that this result is consistent with a view of traditional authorities as 'stationary bandits', where leaders are locally embedded and thus benefited directly from controlling the spread of the disease. Subsequently, control measures were most effectively implemented by more powerful chiefs.
  • Can Development Aid Empower Women? Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Congo
    Can development aid empower women? We randomly assigned 1,250 Congolese communities to a development program that distributed development funds and included women in project selection and implementation, with the goal of empowering women. In 2010 and 2011, we revisited 816 treatment and control communities to collect survey data. Furthermore, in 413 communities we implemented a $1,000 unconditional cash transfer program to assess behavioral change. We find only weak evidence that the program influenced the role of women in the community and policy outcomes and no evidence that the program had an impact on the role of women within the household or attitudes toward them.
  • Gender Quotas in Development Programming: Null Results from a Field Experiment in Congo
    We examine whether gender quotas introduced by development agencies empower women. As part of a development program, an international organization created community management committees in 661 villages to oversee village level program expenditures. In a randomly selected half of these villages the organization required the committees to have gender parity. Using data on project choice from all participating villages, data on decision making in a later development project (105 villages), and data on citizen attitudes (200 villages), we find no evidence that gender parity requirements empower women. We discuss potential reasons for the null result, including weakness of these social interventions in terms of the engagement they generate, their time horizon, and the weak delegation of responsibilities.
  • Citizen Attitudes towards Traditional and State Authorities: Substitutes or Complements?
    Do citizens view state and traditional authorities as substitutes or complements? Past work has been divided on this question. Some scholars point to competition between attitudes toward these entities, suggesting substitution, whereas others highlight positive correlations, suggesting complementarity. Addressing this question, however, is difficult, as it requires assessing the effects of exogenous changes in the latent valuation of one authority on an individual's support for another. We show that this quantity--a type of elasticity--cannot be inferred from correlations between support for the two forms of authority. We employ a structural model to estimate this elasticity of substitution using data from 816 villages in the Democratic Republic of Congo and plausibly exogenous rainfall and conflict shocks. Despite prima facie evidence for substitution logics, our model's outcomes are consistent with complementarity; positive changes in citizen valuation of the chief appear to translate into positive changes in support for the government.
  • Democracy and Health: Evidence from Within-Country Heterogeneity in the Congo
    The literature documents a positive association between democracy and health, and studies supporting this claim have largely relied on cross-country panel analyses. In many developing countries, however, local traditional leaders at the micro-level play a key role in individuals' daily lives while the influence of the national government is largely negligible. In response, this study revisits the relationship between democracy and health using micro-level household data from 816 randomly selected villages in Eastern Congo. We find little or no evidence that health outcomes are better in villages that are governed by elected leaders compared to villages where leaders are not elected. Our data suggest that efforts to improve health outcomes in this setting may need to focus on issues such as gender discrimination and education.
  • Crowdseeding in Eastern Congo: Using Cell Phones to Collect Conflict Events Data in Real Time
    Poor-quality data about conflict events can hinder humanitarian responses and bias academic research. There is increasing recognition of the role that new information technologies can play in producing more reliable data faster. We piloted a novel data-gathering system in the Democratic Republic of Congo in which villagers in a set of randomly selected communities report on events in real time via short message service. We first describe the data and assess its reliability. We then examine the usefulness of such "crowdseeded" data in two ways. First, we implement a downstream experiment on aid and conflict and find evidence that aid can lead to fewer conflict events. Second, we examine conflict diffusion in Eastern Congo and find evidence that key dynamics operate at very micro levels. Both applications highlight the benefit of collecting conflict data via cell phones in real time.
  • Artisanal or Industrial Conflict Minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo
    Existing research suggests a strong link between mining and local conflict but makes no distinction between artisanal and industrial mining. We exploit variation in mineral prices and the granting of industrial mining concessions to investigate how the mode of extraction affects conflict in Eastern Congo. Rising mineral prices increase battles over artisanal mines, indicating competition between armed groups. This effect is much less pronounced for industrial mining. Moreover, the expansion of industrial mining decreases battles, suggesting that companies can secure their concessions. Such expansion does, however, trigger riots, and, when it crowds out artisanal mining, also increases violence against civilians and looting. In line with case-study evidence, these negative effects only materialize when industrial mining companies expand their activities from the research to the production phase.
  • More Legislation, More Violence? The Impact of Dodd-Frank in the DRC
    The Dodd Frank Act was passed by the US Congress in July 2010 and included a provision--Section 1502--that aimed to break the link between conflict and minerals in the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. To date there is only one rigorous quantitative analysis that investigates the impact of Dodd-Frank on local conflict events. Looking at the short-term impact (2011-2012), it finds that the policy backfired. This study builds on a larger, more representative, dataset of mining sites and extends the time horizon by three years (2013-2015). The results indicate that the policy also backfired in the longer run, especially in areas home to gold mines. For territories with the average number of gold mines, the introduction of Dodd-Frank increased the incidence of battles with 44%; looting with 51% and violence against civilians with 28%, compared to pre-Dodd Frank averages. Delving deeper into the impact of the conflict minerals legislation is important, as President Trump suspended the legislation in February 2017 for a two-year period, ordering his administration to replace it with another policy.
  • Know Your Neighbor: The Impact of Social Context on Fairness Behavior
    Laboratory experiments offer an opportunity to isolate human behaviors with a level of precision that is often difficult to obtain using other (survey-based) methods. Yet, experimental tasks are often stripped of any social context, implying that inferences may not directly map to real world contexts. We randomly allocate 632 individuals (grouped randomly into 316 dyads) from small villages in Sierra Leone to four versions of the ultimatum game. In addition to the classic ultimatum game, where both the sender and receiver are anonymous, we reveal the identity of the sender, the receiver or both. This design allows us to explore how fairness behavior is affected by social context in a natural setting where players are drawn from populations that are well-acquainted. We find that average offers increase when the receiver's identity is revealed, suggesting that anonymous ultimatum games underestimate expected fair offers. This study suggest that researchers wishing to relate laboratory behavior to contexts in which the participants are well-acquainted should consider revealing the identities of the players during game play.
  • Field Experiments and Humanitarian Assistance
    The work of Nobel Laureates Banerjee, Duflo and Kremer has centered around the use of randomized control trials to help solve development problems. To date, however, few field experiments have been undertaken to evaluate the effects of humanitarian assistance. The reasons may lie in challenges related to logistics, fragility, security and ethics that often loom large in humanitarian settings. Yet every year, billions of dollars are spent on humanitarian aid, and policymakers are in need of rigorous evidence. In this paper, we reflect on the opportunities and risks of running experiments in humanitarian settings, and provide, as illustration, insights from our experiences with recent field experiments of large-scale humanitarian aid programs in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
  • Exporting Democratic Practices: Evidence from a Village Governance Intervention in Eastern Congo
    We study a randomized Community Driven Reconstruction (CDR) intervention that provided two years of exposure to democratic practices in 1,250 villages in eastern Congo. To assess impacts, we examine behavior in a later village-level unconditional cash transfer project that distributed $1,000 to 457 treatment and control villages. The exercise provides opportunities to assess whether public funds get captured, what governance practices are employed by villagers and village elites and whether the intervention altered these behaviors. We find no evidence for such effects. The results cast doubt on current attempts to export democratic practices to local communities.
  • Fishing, Commitment, and Communication: A Proposal for Comprehensive Nonbinding Research Registration
    Social scientists generally enjoy substantial latitude in selecting measures and models for hypothesis testing. Coupled with publication and related biases, this latitude raises the concern that researchers may intentionally or unintentionally select models that yield positive findings, leading to an unreliable body of published research. To combat this "fishing" problem in medical studies, leading journals now require preregistration of designs that emphasize the prior identification of dependent and independent variables. However, we demonstrate here that even with this level of advanced specification, the scope for fishing is considerable when there is latitude over selection of covariates, subgroups, and other elements of an analysis plan. These concerns could be addressed through the use of a form of comprehensive registration. We experiment with such an approach in the context of an ongoing field experiment for which we drafted a complete "mock report" of findings using fake data on treatment assignment. We describe the advantages and disadvantages of this form of registration and propose that a comprehensive but non-binding approach be adopted as a first step to combat fishing by social scientists. Likely effects of comprehensive but non-binding registration are discussed, the principle advantage being communication rather than commitment, in particular that it generates a clear distinction between exploratory analyses and genuine tests.
  • Electoral Administration in Fledgling Democracies: Experimental Evidence from Kenya
    We examine the effects of national voter registration policies on voting patterns with a large-scale experimental study. Together with Kenya's electoral commission, we designed an experiment in which 1,674 communities were randomized to a status quo or treatment group, receiving civic education on voter registration, SMS reminders about registration opportunities, and/or local registration visits by election commission staff. We find little evidence that civic education improves registration. Local registration visits improve voter registration, a relationship that increases in poorer communities. Moreover, local registration increased electoral competition and vote preference diversity in down-ballot contests in the 2017 Kenyan elections. Our results suggest that status quo voter registration policies constrain political participation and competition, and that inexpensive policy changes may attenuate the effects of such constraints.
  • Measuring Intangible Capital with Market Prices
    Existing standards prohibit disclosures of internally created intangible capital to firm balance sheets, resulting in a downward bias of reported assets. To characterize off-balance sheet intangible assets, we use transaction prices to estimate this missing intangible capital. On average, our new measure of intangible capital is 10\% smaller than prior estimates, while varying more by industry. These estimates better explain market values, increase HML portfolio returns, act as a better proxy for human capital and brand rankings, and exhibit a strong association with patent values.
  • State Preemption of Local Laws: Origins and Modern Trends
    American cities are creatures of their states, with states both granting and limiting the power of their cities. This relationship is characterized by how cooperative or competitive states are with cities in their legislation. Despite the recent attention given to state preemption of local laws, this is not a new phenomenon. Part of the confusion surrounding preemption is that there is no shared definition or understanding of its forms. The purpose of this article is to begin to create that shared conception. In doing so, we define preemption according to its historic origins. We argue modern state preemption of local laws can be divided into four phases, each with their own policies and mechanisms. We show how preemption has changed over time, shifting the functional and legal relationship between states and their cities. Together, these phases help assist policymakers and administrators in understanding the nature of state preemption, and thus how to create and implement local policies in an environment where the distribution of power between governments is competitive and changing.
  • Venture Capital Contracts
    We estimate the impact of venture capital (VC) contract terms on startup outcomes and the split of value between the entrepreneur and investor, accounting for endogenous selection via a novel dynamic search and matching model. The estimation uses a new, large data set of first financing rounds of startup companies. Consistent with efficient contracting theories, there is an optimal equity split between agents that maximizes the probability of success. However, VCs use their bargaining power to receive more investor-friendly terms compared to the contract that maximizes startup values. Better VCs still benefit the startup and the entrepreneur, due to their positive value creation. Counterfactual exercises show that eliminating certain contract terms benefits entrepreneurs and enables low-quality entrepreneurs to finance their startups more quickly, increasing the number of deals in the market. Lowering search frictions shifts the bargaining power to VCs and benefits them at the expense of entrepreneurs. The results show that selection of agents into deals is a first-order factor to take into account in studies of contracting.
  • The Deregulation of the Private Equity Markets and the Decline in IPOs
    The deregulation of securities laws--in particular the National Securities Markets Improvement Act (NSMIA) of 1996--has increased the supply of private capital to late-stage private startups, which are now able to grow to a size that few private firms used to reach. NSMIA is one of a number of factors that have changed the going-public versus staying-private trade-off, helping bring about a new equilibrium where fewer startups go public, and those that do are older. This new equilibrium does not reflect an IPO market failure. Rather, founders are using their increased bargaining power vis-a-vis investors to stay private longer.
  • Effects of restricting social media usage
    Recent research has shown that social media services create large consumer surplus. Despite their positive impact on economic welfare, concerns are raised about the negative association between social media usage and performance or well-being. However, causal empirical evidence is still scarce. To address this research gap, we conduct a randomized controlled trial among students in which we track participants' digital activities over the course of three quarters of an academic year. In the experiment, we randomly allocate half of the sample to a treatment condition in which social media usage is restricted to a maximum of 10 minutes per day. We find that participants in the treatment group substitute social media for instant messaging and do not decrease their total time spent on digital devices. Contrary to findings from previous correlational studies, we do not find any impact of social media usage on well-being and academic success. Our results also suggest that antitrust authorities should consider instant messaging and social media services as direct competitors before approving acquisitions.
  • A Policy-oriented Agent-based Model of Recruitment into Organized Crime
    Criminal organizations exploit their presence on territories and local communities to recruit new workforce in order to carry out their criminal activities and business. The ability to attract individuals is crucial for maintaining power and control over the territories in which these groups are settled. This study proposes the formalization, development and analysis of an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates a neighborhood of Palermo (Sicily) with the aim to understand the pathways that lead individuals to recruitment into organized crime groups (OCGs). Using empirical data on social, economic and criminal conditions of the area under analysis, we use a multi-layer network approach to simulate this scenario. As the final goal, we test different policies to counter recruitment into OCGs. These scenarios are based on two different dimensions of prevention and intervention: (i) primary and secondary socialization and (ii) law enforcement targeting strategies.
  • Predictive policing: Utopia or dystopia? On attitudes towards the use of big data algorithms for law enforcement
    The use of predictive AI tools to improve decision-making in relation to crime prevention and investigation is a reality. They are being implemented almost before we fully understand how they work, while we make relevant legal decisions that may determine the progress of the technology, and long before we can predict their full impact. This paper addresses the attitudes towards this technological revolution applied to criminal justice, focusing in particular on its use by police. The first section summarises and describes the techniques and technologies that make up predictive policing. Subsequently, the main part of the study analyses the attitudes with which this technology has been received. These range from the optimism of those who defend its immediate implementation as a way to improve police objectivity and efficiency, to the pessimism of those who see its use as strengthening a dystopia of state control and surveillance. Two apparent extremes that correspond to the transition from optimism to technological pessimism of the twentieth century. The article concludes with a defence of a realistic, critical and informed view of the use of these predictive algorithms. A vision that, on the one hand, accepts that there are no neutral technologies, yet does not fall into fatalism and technophobia; and, on the other hand, places the human being and the legitimate police function at the centre of the algorithmic equation while redefining its objectives based on the scientific evidence applied to each individual technology.
  • Modeling Dynamic Comparative Public Opinion
    The study of public opinion in comparative context has been hampered by data that is sparse, that is, unavailable for many countries and years; incomparable, i.e., ostensibly addressing the same issue but generated by different survey items; or, most often, both. Questions of representation and of policy feedback on public opinion, for example, cannot be explored fully from a cross-national perspective without comparable time-series data for many countries that span their respective times of policy adoption. Recent works (Claassen 2019; Caughey, O'Grady, and Warshaw 2019) have introduced a latent variable approach to the study of comparative public opinion that maximizes the information gleaned from available surveys to overcome issues of sparse and incomparable data and allow comparativists to examine the dynamics of public opinion. This paper advances this field of research by presenting a new model and software for estimating latent variables of public opinion from cross-national survey data that yield superior fit and more quantities of theoretical interest than previous works allow.
  • Is There a Relationship Between Welfare-State Policies and Suicide Rates? Evidence from the U.S. States, 2000-2015
    Suicide is one of the leading causes of death in the United States. The rise in suicide rates is contributing to the recently observed decline in life expectancy. While previous research identified a solid association between economic strain and suicide, little attention has been paid to how specific welfare policies that are designed to alleviate economic strain may influence suicide rates. There is a growing body of research that is using an institutional approach to demonstrate the role of welfare-state policies in the distribution of health. However, this perspective has not been applied yet to the investigation of suicide. In this study, I combine these approaches to analyze the association between two specific policies, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), and overall and gender-specific suicide rates across the 50 U.S. states between 2000 and 2015. I estimate two-way fixed-effects longitudinal models and find evidence of a robust association between one of these policies - SNAP - and overall and male suicide. After adjusting for a number of confounding factors, higher participation in SNAP is associated with lower overall and male suicide rates. Increasing SNAP participation by one standard deviation (4.5% of the state population) during the study period could have saved the lives of approximately 31,600 people overall and 24,800 men.
  • The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010-2020 Decade: A Retrospective Assessment
    This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010-2020 decade would likely be a period of growing instability in the United States and Western Europe (Turchin 2010). This prediction was based on a computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Index, which in the past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. (2017) conducted a similar structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom and obtained similar results. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data Archive for the US, UK, and Western European countries to assess these structural-demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010-2020 decade in all of these countries.
  • Sexual Assault and Co-occurrence of Mental Health Outcomes among Female, Male, and Transgender-Gender Nonbinary U.S. College Students
    Purpose. To examine the co-occurrence of mental health (depression, anxiety, nonsuicidal self-injury, suicide ideation) and substance use outcomes among female, male, and transgender-gender nonbinary (TNB) college students exposed to sexual assault (SA). Methods. Data were drawn from a 2018 U.S. national survey of college student wellbeing (N = 50,438). Inverse propensity-weighted three-step latent class analysis was used to examine co-occurrence of outcomes while adjusting for 31 potential confounders of the relation between SA exposure and outcomes. Results. Four latent classes were identified for female and male participants, and two for TNB participants, reflecting a range from low to high outcome risk. Exposure to SA was associated with significantly and substantially increased odds (ORs: 2.03-3.64) of membership to the highest-risk outcome class compared to the lowest risk class. Conclusions. Exposure to SA in the college setting is associated with substantially increased risk of co-occurrence of depression, anxiety, non-suicidal self-injury, and suicide ideation regardless of gender identity.
  • Operationalizing Legitimacy
    Legitimacy is widely invoked as a condition, cause, and outcome of other social phenomena, yet measuring legitimacy is a persistent challenge. I synthesize approaches to conceptualizing legitimacy across the social sciences to identify widely agreed upon definitional properties, and build on these points of consensus to develop a generalizable approach to operationalization. Legitimacy implies specific relationships among three empirical elements: an object of legitimacy, an audience that confers legitimacy, and a relationship between the two that is defined by mutual expectations. Together, these empirical elements constitute a dyad (i.e., a single unit consisting of two nodes and a tie). By accounting for the ways that elements of the dyad interact, legitimacy (and illegitimacy) can be empirically established. I outline how this operationalization is compatible with approaches to theorizing legitimacy found in areas of study ranging from small group processes to institutional analysis. Followed to its logical conclusion, this operationalization has important implications for the study and theorization of legitimacy. It implies that legitimacy operates in the context of dyads, and does not function as an attribute of individuals, organizations, regimes, or other social objects. Consequently, the effects of legitimacy are limited to interaction between object and audience in the dyad. Finally, both the establishment and effects of legitimacy are mediated by network dynamics.
  • Whose News? Class-Biased Economic Reporting in the United States
    There is substantial evidence that voters' choices are shaped by assessments of the state of the economy and that these assessments, in turn, are influenced by the news. But how does the economic news track the welfare of different income groups in an era of rising inequality? Whose economy does the news cover? Drawing on a large new dataset of U.S. news content, we demonstrate that the tone of the economic news strongly and disproportionately tracks the fortunes of the richest households, with little sensitivity to income changes among the non-rich. Further, we present evidence that this "class bias" emerges not from pro-rich journalistic preferences but, rather, from the interaction of the media's focus on economic aggregates with structural features of the relationship between economic growth and distribution. The findings yield a novel explanation of distributionally perverse electoral patterns and demonstrate how the structure of the economy conditions economic accountability.
  • Tracing Causal Paths from Experimental and Observational Data
    Despite a growing interest in the study of causal mechanisms, conventional methods for causal mediation analysis are difficult to use when the causal effect of interest involves multiple, potentially overlapping, causal pathways. This article introduces a framework for tracing causal paths in the presence of multiple mediators that are potentially causally dependent. In this framework, the total effect of a treatment on an outcome is decomposed into a set of path-specific effects (PSEs). We describe an imputation approach for estimating PSEs from experimental and observational data, along with a set of bias formulas for conducting sensitivity analysis. In contrast to conventional methods for analyzing causal mediation, this approach does not require modeling the mediator(s) of interest. All we need is to model the expected outcome given treatment, pretreatment confounders, and varying sets of mediators, which can be implemented via highly nonparametric methods. We illustrate this approach via two empirical examples.
  • Evolucao e distribuicao da forca de trabalho no Executivo Federal e as capacidades estatais: Governos Lula e Dilma
    O presente trabalho analisa a distribuicao da forca de trabalho no setor publico federal ao longo dos governos Lula e Dilma (2003-2015), acreditando ser a transferencia de pautas das grandes areas programaticas do planejamento governamental para o quantitativo de servidores ativos um indicativo da dimensao institucional das capacidades estatais. As analises realizadas se basearam principalmente nos Planos Plurianuais (PPAs) associados a dados dos Censos Demograficos, do Sistema Integrado de Administracao de Recursos Humanos (SIAPE) e analises das Leis de Diretrizes Orcamentarias. Os aumentos e reducoes nos quantitativos dos Ministerios foram considerados indicadores da movimentacao das areas prioritarias de atuacao do estado, associados a avaliacao de sua eficacia. Os resultados atestam que a "maquina estatal" passou por recomposicao apos os cortes do periodo neoliberal e hoje situa-se num quadro de relativa estabilidade e ate queda em alguns setores. No ambito do desenvolvimentismo, o Estado se situa novamente como grande incentivador do desenvolvimento.
  • Personal Tutorage System for Schools in Pakistan: A Policy Proposal
    The core objective of a school is to develop children for challenges ahead in life ahead by passing them through a well-developed mechanize process of teaching, learning, and scholarship. While teaching helps them to grow academically, learning and scholarship are essential for personal development. In a participatory, progressive and tolerant society, the role of a teacher is to help children in becoming positively 'participating citizens'. In Pakistan, there is a huge emphasis on exam-oriented quantitative teaching practices within government schools; however, the learning and scholarship aspect seems to have been largely left neglected. Currently, the only opportunity for a child to have a mentor-oriented learning experience within the school is through subject classes. Unfortunately, these classes do provide subject-specific guidance but does address after the overall development needs of a child, in particular: personal development, their trajectory in achieving their full potential, hitting learning objectives through the schooling experience and in developing ways of self-reflection. The purpose of the draft is to propose a system of Personal Tutorage to be introduced at the government schools in Pakistan. For the benefit of the political and bureaucratic audience, the authors have intentionally kept the discussion closely relevant to the very structure of the proposed system and have avoided unnecessary jargon, as well as a detailed literature review. The draft is by no means suggested as a final proposal and has substantial room for updates and structural improvements. Please note that elements or resources within to furnish this proposal may not be at present available in schools. Here, the word Personal Tutor refers to a member of staff in a school, typically a teacher; tutees refer to the students.
  • Measuring the Impact of Free Goods on Real Household Consumption
    A puzzling development over the past 15 years is decline in Total Factor Productivity in many advanced economies. Part of this decline may be due to the rapid growth of free digital goods. Statistical agencies have no reliable way to measure the benefits of the introduction of free goods. This is true even when the provision of the goods is paid for via advertising. Yet these free goods are enormously popular and surely create substantial utility for households. In this paper, we suggest a methodology which will allow statistical agencies to form rough approximations to the benefits that flow to households from new free goods. The present paper draws heavily on the contributions of Brynjolfsson, Collis, Diewert, Eggers and Fox (2019) (subsequent references will be to BCDEF) and Diewert, Fox and Schreyer (2019). In section I, we outline how the reservation price methodology introduced by Hicks (1940; 114) can be used to measure the consumption benefits to households of new products that are provided at zero cost or costs that are close to zero. This Hicksian approach relies on normal index number theory but requires the estimation of reservation prices. In section II, we show how choice experiments about compensation for product withdrawals can be used to estimate these reservation prices. Section III concludes with a summary and implications.
  • Live Facial Recognition: Trust and Legitimacy as Predictors of Public Support for Police Use of New Technology
    Facial recognition technology is just one of a suite of new digital tools police and other security providers around the world are adopting in an effort to function more safely and efficiently. This paper reports results from a major new London-based study exploring public responses to Live Facial Recognition (LFR): a technology that enables police to carry out real-time automated identity checks in public spaces. We find that public trust and legitimacy are important factors predicting acceptance or rejection of LFR. Crucially, trust and particularly legitimacy may serve to alleviate privacy concerns about police use of this technology. In an era where police use of new digital technologies is only likely to increase, these findings have important implications for police-public relations and how the 'public voice' is fed into debates.
  • Learning through Assessment and Feedback Practices: A Critical Review of Engineering Education Settings
    'Assessment' and 'feedback' are inherently embedded in a course curriculum of engineering education settings. These components are indispensable for the teaching-learning processes. It is observed that engineering faculty members do not require any 'teacher-training' to join the engineering institutions across the globe. Hence, they may not have adequate experience in assessing students' performances and providing feedback to students. Only a few research studies have been carried out on assessment and feedback from the engineering education context. Therefore, this paper attempts to critically analyse the literature pertaining to learning through different types and methods of assessment practices in the engineering education settings. Further, it examines the significance of qualitative feedback in assessment and the principles of good feedback practice. It highlights the implications of assessing student performance and providing feedback from the engineering education perspective. Finally, the paper offers some recommendations on assessment and feedback practices in the engineering education settings.
  • Journalists and Science 2: diversity in the media coverage of the 2009 pandemic flu vaccine's safety in France
    The theoretical debate about the role played by the media in controversies over science and technology has mostly died out since the beginning of the 2000s. The emergence of a neo-institutionalist sociology of journalism and the application of Bourdieu's field theory to this subject provide sociologists of science with new tools to make sense of journalists' work in controversies. This paper draws on this literature to shed light the media coverage of the controversy over the safety of the 2009 pandemic flu vaccine. Using semi-structured interviews with journalists who covered this issue for the French agenda-setting news-media and content analysis of the coverage proposed by a sample of these media, it analyses the diversity in the media coverage of this issue. I show that journalists presented a variety of conceptions of their role during this crisis. This was reflected in significant variations in how the issue was covered in the French news media. These variations are linked to journalists' professional trajectories, their media's position in the market and the overall evolution of the field of health journalism. These results contrast with the traditional account of why vaccine criticism emerges in the news that presents journalists on the whole as being favourable towards the "antivaccine movement" and as interested in fostering controversies on vaccination.
  • Spreading emotions in 140 characters: a pilot study in Twitter following the Barcelona terror attacks
    The online social network Twitter, apart from being one of the main vehicles of communication in the cyberspace, has become an effective diffusor of fear of crime. The latter phenomenon has caught the attention of researchers since the 1960's, amongst other reasons due to the impact on the citizens' quality of life and consequently the call for its public management. Yet, the evaluation of fear of crime in the cyberspace, and more precisely on Twitter, is practically inexistent to the date. Based on a sample of tweets pertaining to three different hashtags (#prayforbarcelona, #stopislam, and #barcelona), which were gathered during the attacks on Barcelona in August 2017, our study pretends to investigate how users (n = 450) of Twitter perceive tweets to affect the public appraisal of security. These data were contrasted with a database of affective norms for more than 10,000 words in the Spanish language (Stadthagen-Gonzalez, Ferre, Perez-Sanchez, Imbault, & Hinojosa, 2017). We correlated the emotive values of tweets (based on their lexicon) with the estimations of our research participants. The results show significant correlations between various discrete basic emotions (fear, happiness, sadness) ) and our participants' judgements. We achieved the same for one continuous emotional dimension (valence). This study shows, even though not conclusively, that the emotion transported via the linguistic material has an impact on the estimated likelihood of affecting the public perception of security when elicited in a space of potential crime, specifically in the cyberspace. Our results allow us to (1) continue along this kind of method, contrasting traditional methodology by approaching fear of crime through a combination of Big Data Analysis and linguistic emotion detection in written text. They furthermore allow us to (2) establish the methodological bases to design an automatized detector of fear of crime for Twitter, which we will attempt in a series of follow up studies. Our long-term goal is to program classifying algorithms to identify linguistic material with a high likelihood of affecting the public feeling of security.
  • Zi Lian reChu Qin toterewakuniyoruwakuraihubaransunoShi Jian toJian Zheng
    Guo Li Ji Di Yan Jiu Suo niQin meruFu Qin toNTTsekiyuriteiziyapanZhu Shi Hui She niQin meruMu Qin ha, Gong Dong kiShi Dai toshiteJi Sok De niQin Wu shinagara, Zhong Zheng Xin Shen Zhang Hai Er noKan Hu woXing i, wakuraihubaransu(WLB)woDa Cheng shita. konoWLBwoJian Zheng surutame, Liang Qin no2Nian Jian noSheng Huo Zhuang Kuang yaQin Wu Ji Lu noXiang Xi naJi Lu woLi Yong shi, Ding Liang De niFen Xi shita. Zi haRi Chang De niLiang Qin nodochirakanoKan Hu woBi Yao toshi, Liang Qin haQin Wu shinagaraKan Hu shita. Kan Hu ha, Fu Qin haZi Lian reChu Qin woXing inagara, Mu Qin haterewakuwoXing inagara, Shi Shi sareta. Zhong Zheng Xin Shen Zhang Hai Er noZi Yu tetoKan Hu woshinagaraDong kutameniha, She Hui De naFu Zhi sabisunihaXian Jie gaarukotokara, Qin Wu Xian denoDuo Yang naDong kiFang gadekiruHuan Jing gaBi Yao deatsuta. Duo Yang naDong kiFang nitsuite, Fu Mu noQin Wu Xian deBi Jiao suruto, Qing Bao shisutemuyaGui Yue woHan meteDuo kunoDian deMin Jian Qi Ye noFang gaGuo Li noYan Jiu Ji Guan woShang Hui tsuteita. WLBniha, Duo Yang naDong kiFang gadekiruyouLao Dong Huan Jing noGai Ge gaBi Yao de, Guo Li noYan Jiu Ji Guan noJing Ying Ke Ti toshiteDong kiFang Gai Ge noBi Yao Xing woShi shita.
  • Audiences as Medium: Motivations and Emotions in News Sharing
    Although social media is still not the mainstream option to disseminate news for the population as a whole, social media usage for this purpose increases every year. In particular, it has become widespread among young people, and it is expected to be of paramount importance in the future. This practice alters the way news is distributed and consumed, and it directly affects the media's business model. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial to ensure the media's financial feasibility. This article uses the uses and gratifications theory to present what we know so far about the motivations behind why users share news on social media, with special reference to the role of emotion in the process.
  • Next-generation Visitation Models using Social Media to Estimate Recreation on Public Lands
    Outdoor recreation is an economically important industry and valuable ecosystem service, yet managers lack high quality data on the spatial and temporal extent and nature of recreation activities. Social media is a promising source of data to fill information gaps because the amount of recreational use is positively correlated with social media activity. However, despite the implication that these correlations could be employed to accurately estimate visitation, there are no known transferable models parameterized for use with multiple social media data sources. This study tackles these issues by examining the relative value of multiple sources of social media in models that estimate visitation at unmonitored sites and times across multiple destinations. Using a novel dataset of over 30,000 social media posts and 286,383 observed visits, from two regions in the United States, we compare multiple competing statistical models for estimating visitation based on social media and other controlling variables such as time of year and weather. We measure the marginal benefits of social media data sources and explore whether our results are generalizable across regions. To conclude, we discuss the implications of our findings for recreation research and visitor management.
  • Calzada, I. & Cobo, C. (2015), Unplugging: Deconstructing the Smart City. Journal of Urban Technology 22(1): 23-43. DOI: 10.1080/10630732.2014.971535.
    This paper explores the subtle notion of unplugging to critically analyze the technological determinism of the Smart City. This exploration suggests that being digitally connected should not be perceived as gaining social capital. This article critiques the assumptions of the Smart City and proposes a 10-dimension conceptual framework. The first section of this article explores hyper-connected societies and how unplugging could be beneficial. The main subjects, Digital Natives, are discussed in the second section of this article. The third section is a decalogue on deconstructing the Smart City, and the final section presents key ideas and questions for future analysis.
  • Setting the Target: Precise Estimands and the Gap Between Theory and Empirics
    The link between theory and quantitative empirical evidence is a longstanding hurdle in sociological research. Ambiguity about the role that statistical evidence plays in an argument may produce misleading conclusions and poor methodological practice. This ambiguity could be reduced if researchers would state the theoretical estimand---the central quantity at the core of a given paper---in precise language. Our approach envisions three choices in the research process: (1) choice of a theoretical estimand, which will be informative for theory, (2) choice of an empirical estimand, which is informative about the theoretical estimand under some identification assumptions, and (3) choice of an estimation strategy to learn the empirical estimand from data. Key advantages of this approach include improved clarity on the object of interest, transparency about how empirical evidence contributes to knowledge of that quantity, and the ability to easily plug in new statistical tools for estimation.
  • Planning transport for social inclusion: An accessibility-activity participation approach
    Social equity is increasingly becoming an important objective in transport planning and project evaluation. This paper provides a framework and an empirical investigation in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area (GTHA) examining the links between public transit accessibility and the risks of social exclusion, simply understood as the suppressed ability to conduct daily activities at normal levels. Specifically, we use a large-sample travel survey to present a new transport-geography concept termed participation deserts, neighbourhood-level clusters of lower than expected activity participation. We then use multivariate models to estimate where, and for whom, improvements in transit accessibility will effectively increase activity participation and reduce risks of transport-related social exclusion. Our results show that neighbourhoods with high concentrations of low-income and zero-car households located outside of major transit corridors are the most sensitive to having improvements in accessibility increase daily activity participation rates. We contend that transit investments providing better connections to these neighbourhoods would have the greatest benefit in terms of alleviating existing inequalities and reducing the risks of social exclusion. The ability for transport investments to liberate suppressed activity participation is not currently being predicted or valued in existing transport evaluation methodologies, but there is great potential in doing so in order to capture the social equity benefits associated with increasing transit accessibility.
  • Traces of Culture: The Feedback Loop Between Behavior, Brain, and Disorder
    Culture is part of an extensive series of feedback loops, which involve multiple organismic levels including social contexts, cognitive mediations, neural processes, and behavior. Recent studies in neuroscience show that culturally contingent social processes shape some neural pathways. Studying the influence of cultural context on neural processes may yield new insights into psychiatric disorders. New methodologies in the neurosciences offer innovative ways to assess the impact of culture on mental health and illness. However, implementing these methodologies raises important theoretical and ethical concerns, which must be resolved to address patient individuality and the complexity of cultural diversity. This paper discusses cultural context as a major influence on (and consequence of) human neural plasticity and advocates a culture-brain-behavior (CBB) interaction model for conceptualizing the relationship between culture, brain, and psychiatric disorders. Recommendations are made for integrating neuroscientific techniques into transcultural psychiatric research by taking a systems approach to evaluating disorders.
  • Rationalitat in der Praxis: Definitionen, Herausforderungen, Optimierungsstrategien
    In diesem Grundlagenpapier wird erstens der Begriff Rationalitat philosophisch eingeordnet; werden zweitens die praktischen Probleme, welche zu irrationalem Denken und Entscheiden fuhren, beschrieben; und werden drittens unterschiedliche Ansatze zum Umgang mit Irrationalitat aufgezeigt (Nudging, Debiasing, Red Teaming).
  • Social origins, cognitive ability, educational attainment and Social Class Position in Britain: A birth cohort and life-course perspective
    The aim of this Summary Report is to show how social origins, when viewed in a comprehensive, multidimensional way, affect the educational and labour market attainments of individuals whose cognitive ability at a relatively early stage in their educational histories is at a similar level. The main findings of the report are: (1) Children of similar cognitive ability have very different chances of educational success, depending on their parents' economic, socio-cultural and educational resources; (2) For children born in the early 1990s, parents' economic resources are somewhat less important while parents' socio-cultural and educational resources are more important in affecting their educational attainment than for children born in the late 1950s or the early 1970s; (3) About half of the difference in educational attainment between children from advantaged and disadvantaged parental backgrounds is due to a difference in their cognitive ability, while the other half is due to other factors. (4) Obtaining formal qualifications is only one channel for upward mobility for high- ability individuals of disadvantaged backgrounds; there are other channels that are more directly related to cognitive ability, such as job training programmes, promotions or becoming self-employed in higher-level occupations.
  • Measuring social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment in the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS).pdf
    This data note presents and discussed descriptive statistics of the key variables on individuals' social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment that have been constructed based on the information contained in the National Child Development Study (NCDS). The main sets of variables presented are (1) measures of respondents' cognitive ability in childhood, (2) parental education, class, status and income, and (3) respondents' highest qualification and measures indicating whether respondents have crossed different educational qualification thresholds.
  • Measuring social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment in the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE)
    This data note presents and discussed descriptive statistics of the key variables on individuals' social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment that have been constructed based on the information contained in the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE). The main sets of variables presented are (1) measures of respondents' cognitive ability in childhood, (2) parental education, class, status and income, and (3) respondents' highest qualification and measures indicating whether respondents have crossed different educational qualification thresholds.
  • Comparative Data Note: Harmonising the measurement of social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment across the National Child Development Study (NCDS), the British Cohort Study (BCS70), the Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE), and the Avon Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)
    The data note presents and discusses descriptive statistics comparing key variables on individuals' social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment that have been constructed based on the information contained in four different data sets: National Child Development Study (NCDS), 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), Longitudinal Study of Young People in England (LSYPE) and Avon Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). The main sets of variables presented are (1) measures of respondents' cognitive ability in childhood, (2) parental education, class, status and income, and (3) respondents' highest qualification and measures indicating whether respondents have crossed different educational qualification thresholds.
  • Measuring social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment in the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70)
    This data note presents and discussed descriptive statistics of the key variables on individuals' social origin, cognitive ability and educational attainment that have been constructed based on the information contained in the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70). The main sets of variables presented are (1) measures of respondents' cognitive ability in childhood, (2) parental education, class, status and income, and (3) respondents' highest qualification and measures indicating whether respondents have crossed different educational qualification thresholds.