Papers on SocArXiv appear here as they are posted, with the latest first. This is intended both to show the latest papers and also to demonstrate the potential of our platform.

About this page

The page draws the Atom feed for SocArXiv generated by SHARE and displays it using the WordPress RSS shortcode. The links are to SocArXiv records in the SHARE database. Each record includes a link to the preprint on SocArXiv under the heading “external links.” If the author included the DOI for a published version of the paper, that link is also included. This is the same feed that populates the Twitter account @SocArXivPapers, using the app If This Then That.

This feed includes all SocArXiv papers, but anyone can create a custom feed from SocArXiv (or any of the other databases in SHARE). To capture this feed, visit the SocArXiv page on SHARE and right-click on the Atom feed radio button at the top right to copy the URL.

To create a custom feed, for example, of papers submitted to the 2016 meetings of the American Sociological Association using the #ASA2016 tag, add “asa2016” to the search bar and then copy the Atom feed link again. To facilitate an open working paper series, paper award competition, or conference collection, simply direct participants to use a common tag when they upload their papers and then generate a feed using that tag as the search term. Contact us if you’d like help.

SocArXiv papers

  • Flexplace Work and Partnered Fathers' Time in Housework and Childcare
    Access to and use of work-family policies, especially by men, has direct implications for achieving gender equality. Using the 2017-18 American Time Use Survey Leave Module, the authors investigated the association of partnered heterosexual fathers' (n = 1,956) time working from home, a workplace benefit known as "flexplace", and time spent in housework and childcare. The authors also considered whether these associations vary by partners' work status. Findings show working from home was associated with increases in fathers' time spent in routine housework, conditional that their partners worked full-time. Concomitantly, fathers' use of flexplace was also associated with increases in fathers' time spent providing childcare, particularly physical care, regardless of partners' labor force participation. This study updates our understanding of the links between fathers' use of work-family benefits and their contributions to domestic labor at home, and sheds light on the viability of flexplace policies for achieving more equitable divisions of labor in families.
  • The role of partnering and assortative mating by social origin for income inequality: The case of Finland, 1991-2014
    Previous studies covering various developed countries suggest that changes in assortative mating by education have contributed only a little to the changes in income inequality, opposite to the expectations of many. In this paper we consider two potential reasons for the zero effects: a) that it is the selection into partnerships rather than assortative mating according to specific characteristics that matters; and b) that for assortative mating to matter, a broader spectrum of matching characteristics than just education should be considered, such as matching by employment and social origin. We study these assumptions using register data on household income inequalities, education, employment and parental class background in Finland 1991-2014. We analyze men and women separately and focus on individuals aged 35-40. We concentrate on between group income inequality as measured by the Theil index. The results suggest that selection into partnership is an important factor behind income inequality and can explain most of the changes in income inequality. Assortative mating does not matter much, even if more sorting characteristics are taken into account. All in all, social origin contributes very little to the income inequality of families in Finland.
  • Left Behind? The impact of geographical mobility on children's educational attainment in Finland and Germany.
    It is often assumed that families migrate to improve their economic and social prospects, and that these additional resources can benefit the whole family. However, existing research suggests that many children who have experienced (internal) migration underperform compared to their non-migrating peers in terms of different socioeconomic outcomes. In this paper, we study the effects of geographical mobility on children's educational attainment in Finland and Germany using Finnish register data and the National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) respectively. Our findings indicate that moving during childhood is associated with the risk of not attaining any secondary degree in both countries. In Finland, this is mostly explained by negative selection into moving, (i.e. those who move are more likely to be disadvantaged). For Germany however, an independent association between moving and educational attainment remains after taking into account various reasons why families move. Furthermore, for both Germany and Finland, any labour force status or earning gains parents make, after a move, do not seem to compensate for the negative influence of internal migration on children's educational attainment. Overall, we conclude that that when children move something remains behind, therefore schools have an important role to play in integrating internal migrants - as well as international migrants - into the social networks of the schools they arrive in.
  • Contextual Prejudice: How Occupational Context and Stereotypes Shape Bias against Gay and Lesbian Employees
    While much research provides evidence that gay men and lesbians are discriminated against in the U.S. labor force, the contexts in which such bias is enhanced or reduced, or the mechanisms behind it, are harder to pinpoint. This article puts forth that occupational context--and specifically, the stereotypes about gay men and lesbians evoked by certain occupational contexts--play an important role in shaping bias against gay men and lesbians in the labor force. I argue that people are implicitly guided by cultural stereotypes about gay men and lesbians, which affects perceptions about whether they are suitable for specific occupations. This leads to penalties for being openly gay or lesbian in some occupational scenarios, but may lead to less or no penalties in others. This theory is tested empirically using a list experiment, a methodological technique designed to reduce or eliminate social desirability bias in responses. Results suggest that bias against gay men and lesbians is not standard across all occupations or subgroups of gay employees, but rather, is shaped by important contextual factors that can activate certain stereotypes about gay and lesbian individuals.
  • Accountability in Governing Hierarchies
    Formal theories of accountability and bureaucratic politics typically consider voter-politician interactions in isolation from politician-bureaucrat interactions. In this paper, we study a model of electoral accountability with a hierarchy consisting of a voter, a politician, and a bureaucrat. The politician and bureaucrat both produce government output valued by the voter. The voter controls the politician via election and the politician provides incentives to bureaucrats, who may have conflicting interests. We show that when times are conducive to high quality governance -- budgets are large and players are farsighted -- incorporating the bureaucratic layer of the hierarchy makes for weaker accountability standards. However, when times are tough and budgets are small or players are myopic it is possible that voters may benefit from increasing their demands on elected officials. These accountability standards change even when reelection does not depend at all on the bureaucrat's output directly.
  • Redrawing hot spots of crime in Dallas, Texas
    In this work we evaluate the predictive capability of identifying long term, micro place hot spots in Dallas, TX. We create hot spots using a hierarchical clustering algorithm, using law enforcement cost of crime estimates as weights. Relative to the much larger current hot spot areas defined by the Dallas Police Department, our identified hot spots are much smaller (under 3 square miles), and capture crime harm at a higher density per the Predictive Accuracy Index statistic. We also show that the hierarchical clustering algorithm captures a wide array of hot spot types; some one or two addresses, others street segments, and some agglomeration of larger areas. This suggests identifying hot spots based on a specific unit of aggregation (e.g. addresses, street segments), may be less efficient than using a hierarchical clustering technique in practice. Code and data to reproduce the analysis can be downloaded from
  • Menimbang Ulang Wacana Tax Amnesty
    Tulisan ini menganalisis wacana tax amnesty yang hendak diterapkan Pemerintah Indonesia pada 2016. Dua poin yang menjadi analisis utama dalam tulisan ini adalah. Pertama, kebijakan ini merupakan kebijakan tambal sulam defisit penerimaan negara selama 2015-16. Kedua, analisis aspek ekonomi politik kebijakan ini.
  • Impact of rumors or misinformation on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in social media
    The COVID-19 pandemic has not only caused significant challenges for health system all over the globe but also fueled the surge of numerous rumors, hoaxes and misinformation, regarding etiology, outcomes, prevention, and cure of the disease. This misinformation are masking healthy behaviors and promoting erroneous practices that increase the spread of the virus and ultimately result in poor physical and mental health outcomes among individuals. Myriad incidents of mishaps caused by these rumors was reported across the world. To address this issue the frontline healthcare providers should be equipped with the most recent research findings and accurate information. The mass media, health care organization, community-based organizations, and other important stakeholders should build strategic partnerships and launch common platforms in disseminating authentic public health messages. Advanced technologies like natural language processing or data mining approaches should be applied in detection and removal online content with no scientific basis from all social media platforms. Those involved with the spread of such rumors should be brought to justice. Telemedicine based care should be established at a large scale to prevent depletion of limited resources.
  • Presidential entrepreneurship and policy change: The case of the telecommunications reform in Mexico (1990 - 2015)
    This article studies presidential policy change by using the agenda-setting theory of Kingdon (1984) and Baumgartner and Jones (1993). It focuses on studying the reform of the telecommunications sector in Mexico from the administrations of Carlos Salinas de Gortari (1988 - 1994) to Enrique Pena Nieto (2012 - 2018). The process of creating a common understanding of the problem and its solutions contribute to generating policy change. It considers that the president is an actor that takes an active role in policymaking. This analysis uses a most-similar comparative approach. The analysis shows that policy changes are sensitive to presidential policy entrepreneurship.
  • Initial Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on Racial Prejudice in the United States: Evidence from Google Trends
    In the United States, widespread hostility towards Asian-Americans has unfortunately seemed to define a large component of Americans' response to the Coronavirus pandemic. Utilizing Google Trends data, I examine how sentiment towards minority racial groups has been affected by the Coronavirus pandemic. I find strong evidence that Coronavirus had caused an increase in anti-Chinese sentiment, but surprisingly I find that it has caused an even greater increase in anti-Hispanic sentiment. I discuss why this may be and also present evidence that Coronavirus has resulted in discrimination towards Chinese and Mexican restaurants.
    Humans find various choices in their lives by technology. This development is said as improvement of human's civilization. However, some effects happen in this disruption era. The effects include labor and inter-generational communication. Among required skills, language acquires heterogeneous benefits, even its existence remain primary issue. Language skill is virtue in every generation.
  • Monitoramento do Coronavirus (Covid-19) nos municipios do Rio Grande do Sul, Brasil
    Este material e um produto do projeto de pesquisa Sistema de Informacao Geografica (SIG) do Litoral Norte registrado na Pro-Reitoria de Pesquisa da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul ( Serao apresentados alguns dados sobre o contagio de coronavirus (Covid-19) nos municipios gauchos. Preparamos tabelas, graficos e muitos mapas baseados nos dados da Secretaria de Saude do Rio Grande do Sul atualizados para os municipios gauchos ate o dia 26/03/2020. O painel de dados que apresentamos baseado em ArcGis Online pode ser visualizado em telefones ( e computador ( Nossa intencao e contribuir com o fornecimento de dados atualizados para a populacao, combater a desinformacao e a subnotificacao de casos de Coronavirus (Covid-19).
  • Electoral accountability and state violence: The political legacy of the Marikana massacre
    Democratic states often wield coercive force against ordinary people, yet little is known about the electoral consequences thereof. We analyze how incumbent electoral support in South Africa was affected by the Marikana massacre, one of the most high-profile examples of state violence in contemporary democratic Africa, using panel data constructed from polling station returns. In communities proximate to the violence the incumbent party was punished at the polls. We investigate the sources of this change using survey data, and find that these effects are almost exclusively driven by voters switching to a new opposition party that formed in the wake of the massacre, rather than (de-)mobilization. These findings suggest two lessons about the promises and limits of electoral accountability in the context of state violence. First, immediate physical or social proximity to state violence may be a necessary, if not sufficient, condition for holding incumbents accountable. Second, electoral accountability appears to depend on the existence of or formation of credible opposition parties that can serve as a vector for disaffected voters.
  • Habitat Selection Theory and the Preference for Flowers - Is There Empirical Support?
    Although the aesthetic appreciation of flowers is a well-known aspect of human behavior, theories explaining its origin are missing. An exception is the evolutionary theory of Heerwagen and Orians, who suggest that humans emotionally respond to flowers because they signal food availability. However, fruits are stronger and more direct signals of food availability than flowers, therefore fruits should elicit stronger emotional responses than flowers. To test the theory, we performed two online studies in Czechia. The participants (n = 3354 and 744 respectively) indicated on a six-point scale their preferences for the photographs of 14 edible Czech plant species (study A) and 20 edible plant species from African savannas (study B), varying in their growth stage (flowering, fruiting). Paired t-tests found no preference for Czech fruiting plants and a strong preference for African flowering plants (p<0.0001, Cohen's d = 1.24). Our results show that the theory deserves renewed attention.
  • A New Volatility Model: GQARCH-Ito Model
    Volatility asymmetry is a hot topic in high-frequency financial market. In this paper, we propose a new econometric model, which could describe volatility asymmetry based on high-frequency historical data and low-frequency historical data. After providing the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters, we establish their asymptotic properties. We also conduct a series of simulation studies to check the finite sample performance and volatility forecasting performance of the proposed methodologies. And an empirical application is demonstrated that the new model has stronger volatility prediction power than GARCH-It\^{o} model in the literature.
  • Resolving Time Inconsistency of Decision Problem with Non-expectation Operator: From Internal Conflict to Internal Harmony by Strategy of Self-Coordination
    When a stochastic decision problem is time inconsistent, the decision maker would be puzzled by his conflicting decisions optimally derived from his time-varying preferences at different time instants (with different time horizons). While the long-run self (LR) of the decision maker pursues the long-term optimality, the short-run selves (SRs) of the decision maker at different time instants bow to short-term temptations. While the literature began to recognize the importance to strike a balance between LR's and SRs' interests, the existing results are not applicable to situations where the decision maker's preferences involve non-expectation operators. We propose an operable unified two-tier dual-self game model with commitment by punishment, which can cope with general time inconsistent stochastic decision problems with both expectation and non-expectation operators in the objective function. By attaching punishment terms to both the preferences of LR and SRs which quantitatively evaluate the internal conflict among different selves, our game model aligns the interests of the LR and SRs to a certain degree. The equilibrium strategy, termed strategy of self-coordination, achieves some degree of internal harmony among various selves. We successfully apply the model to the investment and consumption problem with quasi-hyperbolic discounting and the dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem.
  • Forecasting security's volatility using low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option-implied volatility
    Low-frequency historical data, high-frequency historical data and option data are three major sources, which can be used to forecast the underlying security's volatility. In this paper, we propose two econometric models, which integrate three information sources. In GARCH-It\^{o}-OI model, we assume that the option-implied volatility can influence the security's future volatility, and the option-implied volatility is treated as an observable exogenous variable. In GARCH-It\^{o}-IV model, we assume that the option-implied volatility can not influence the security's volatility directly, and the relationship between the option-implied volatility and the security's volatility is constructed to extract useful information of the underlying security. After providing the quasi-maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters and establishing their asymptotic properties, we also conduct a series of simulation analysis and empirical analysis to compare the proposed models with other popular models in the literature. We find that when the sampling interval of the high-frequency data is 5 minutes, the GARCH-It\^{o}-OI model and GARCH-It\^{o}-IV model has better forecasting performance than other models.
  • Beta and Coskewness Pricing: Perspective from Probability Weighting
    The security market line is often flat or downward-sloping. We hypothesize that probability weighting plays a role and that one ought to differentiate between periods in which agents overweight extreme events and those in which they underweight them. Overweighting inflates the probability of extremely bad events and demands greater compensation for beta risk. Underweighting has the opposite effect. Overall, these two effects offset each other, resulting in a flat or slightly negative return--beta relationship. Similarly, overweighting the tails enhances the negative relationship between return and coskewness, whereas underweighting reduces it. We support our theory through an extensive empirical study.
    Scholars have established various risk factors that increase the risk of sexual victimization (SV) among college students. However, little research has focused on gender norm conformity as a risk factor of SV. Addressing this gap in the literature, we conducted a study with 322 men and 815 female university students. Over 51% of women and 23% of men indicated experiencing some form of SV in their lives. Logistic regression analyses revealed various gender differences and established that gender norms predict SV while controlling for established risk factors. We discuss these findings and their implications for prevention measures of SV.
  • Poor Laborers and Rich Capitalists? On the Evolution of Income Composition Inequality in Italy 1989-2016
    We study the evolution of inequality in income composition in terms of capital and labor income in Italy between 1989 and 2016. We document a rise in the share of capital income accruing to the bottom of the distribution, whilst the top of the distribution increases its share of labor income. This implies a falling degree of income composition inequality in the period considered and, hence, the fact that Italy is moving away from being an economy composed of poor laborers and rich capitalists. This result is robust to the use of different definitions of capital and labor income. A falling degree of income composition inequality implies a weaker link between the functional and personal distributions of income. Therefore, fluctuations in the total factor shares of income are having an increasingly weaker impact on income inequality in Italy. Finally, we conceptualize a rule of thumb for policy makers seeking to reduce income inequality in the long run. This rule relates fluctuations in the total factor shares and the level of income composition inequality to the specific income source to be redistributed. (Stone Center on Socio-Economic Inequality Working Paper)
  • A nested computational social science approach for deep-narrative analysis in energy policy research
    Text-based data sources like narratives and stories have become increasingly popular as critical insight generator in energy research and social science. However, their implications in policy application usually remain superficial and fail to fully exploit state-of-the-art resources which digital era holds for text analysis. This paper illustrates the potential of deep-narrative analysis in energy policy research using text analysis tools from the cutting-edge domain of computational social sciences, notably topic modelling. We argue that a nested application of topic modelling and grounded theory in narrative analysis promises advances in areas where manual-coding driven narrative analysis has traditionally struggled with directionality biases, scaling, systematisation and repeatability. The nested application of the topic model and the grounded theory goes beyond the frequentist approach of narrative analysis and introduces insight generation capabilities based on the probability distribution of words and topics in a text corpus. In this manner, our proposed methodology deconstructs the corpus and enables the analyst to answer research questions based on the foundational element of the text data structure. We verify the theoretical and epistemological fit of the proposed nested methodology through a meta-analysis of a state-of-the-art bibliographic database on energy policy and computational social science. We find that the nested application contributes to the literature gap on the need for multidisciplinary polyvalence methodologies that can systematically include qualitative evidence into policymaking.
  • Suicide clusters in Australian youth: A comparison of cluster detection methods
    Aims: Suicide clusters are significantly more common in young people. Yet, there is currently no gold-standard method for detecting suicide clusters and there is some evidence that the different methods for detecting clusters give inconsistent results. Our aim was to conduct a comparative analysis of suicide clusters in young people using 1) The scan statistic; 2) A systematic search of coronial inquests into suicide clusters and; 3) Descriptive network analysis. We sought to identify similarities and differences in cluster detection methods and to quantify rates of exposure to suicide among cluster members. Methods: Suicide data were obtained from the National Coronial Information System from 2006-2015 for Australians aged 10-24 years. We included N=3027 suicides from seven Australian state and territories. Suicide clusters were determined using: 1) Poisson discrete scan statistics; 2) A systematic search of coronial inquests; and 3) Descriptive network analysis involving psychosocial links between three or more cluster members. We analysed the prevalence of suicide clusters, the geospatial overlap between clusters, the proportion of overlap among cluster members and quantified rates of exposure to suicide for each cluster method. We examined the narrative text of police and coronial reports for evidence exposure to suicide and psychosocial links between cluster members. Results: Eight suicide clusters (69 suicides) were identified using the scan statistic; seven (40 suicides) from coronial inquests into suicide clusters; and 11 (37 suicides) using descriptive network analysis. Of the eight clusters detected using the scan statistic, two suicide clusters were identified using descriptive network analysis and one was identified in coronial inquest reports. Of the seven coronial inquests into suicide clusters, four suicide clusters were detected using descriptive network analysis and one was detected using the scan statistic. Geospatial congruence among overlapping clusters ranged from 25 to 100%. Overall, 9.2% (12 suicides) of individuals were identified using more than one cluster method. Prior exposure to suicide was 10.1% (N=7) for suicide clusters identified using the scan statistic; 32.5% (N=13) for clusters identified using coronial inquests reports; and 56.8% (N=21) for clusters identified using descriptive network analysis. Conclusion: Different methods for determining suicide clusters identified different suicide clusters and cluster members. The use of multiple cluster detection methods has the potential to increase cluster response activities and suicide prevention interventions in communities that would not otherwise be detected by a single cluster method.
  • The Simple Dynamics of 'Animal Spirits'
    In the tradition of physiological psychology dating back to Wilhelm Wundt, an adaptation-level approach is taken to the level of economic certainty, as measured by the psychologically sensitive unemployment series. Unemployment levels 'low' relative to the adaptation level are shown to promote confidence -- high 'animal spirits' -- while the converse holds for 'high' unemployment rates. It is suggested that attempts to smooth the business cycle may become counterproductive (to the extent that such policy can be considered exogenous) if they produce less than 'optimal' levels of 'variety', construed in this context as alternation of confidence levels.
  • What Role Does Collaboration have in Responding to COVID-19?
    This paper provides some estimates of early scientific mobilization regarding COVID19, as represented in PubMed, through Mar 18. We find that things look similarly coordinated--as you would hope and might expect in an emerging crisis--to our previous analysis of early HIV research.
  • Culture Beneath Discourse: An Ontology of Cognitive Cultural Entities
    Sociology has increasingly drawn on concepts from the cognitive sciences to better theorize and measure culture, particularly nondeclarative personal culture beneath the level of conscious awareness. Despite several advances, these "cognitive cultural" concepts are drawn on selectively, and limited work has attempted to assemble them into a coherent ontology, leading to conceptual murkiness and ambiguous use of terms. This article synthesizes literature on culture and cognition to theorize four interrelated but distinct levels of cultural knowledge beneath the level of explicit discourse. Using emergence theories from the philosophy of science, I theorize how these levels relate to each other, as well as to discourse and public culture. I then illustrate their value as units of analysis using the empirical case of American religious understandings. This ontology provides a necessary groundwork for improved discussions of how culture works, the relation of culture and cognition, and methods for studying nondeclarative personal culture.
  • Measuring Stability and Change in Personal Culture Using Panel Data
    Models of population-wide cultural change tend to invoke one of two broad models of individual change. One approach theorizes that people actively update their beliefs and behaviors in the face of new information. The other argues that, following early socialization experiences, dispositions are stable. We formalize these two models, elaborate empirical implications of each, and derive a simple combined model for comparing them using panel data. We test this model on 183 attitude and behavior items from the 2006-14 rotating panels of the General Social Survey. Though the pattern of results is complex, it is somewhat more consistent with the settled dispositions model than the active updating model. Most observed change in the GSS appears to be short-term attitude change or measurement error rather than persisting changes. When persistent change occurs, it is somewhat more likely to occur in younger people than older people and more common for public behaviors and beliefs about high-profile issues than private attitudes. We argue that we need both models in our theory of cultural evolution but that we need more research on the circumstances under which each is more likely to apply.
  • How indiscriminate violence fuels religious conflict: Evidence from Kenya
    Armed conflicts frequently fuel tensions between groups. The underlying mechanisms remain understudied. The "cognitive perspective" of group identification offers a possible explanation, but is tacit on exact causal pathways. We predict that indiscriminate violence by armed actors induces fear of future attacks which in turn leads to prejudice, enhanced in-group cohesion, and calls for segregation. Selective violence that yields a lower probability of affecting bystanders does not contribute to fear and thereby does not foster prejudice, segregation, and cohesion. To test our predictions, we rely on large-scale, reimbursed, electronic panel surveys conducted in Nairobi and Mombasa during the violent Kenyan elections in the Summer of 2017. Relying on the same 2,109 respondents, we conducted interviews before, during, and after violence erupted. We find evidence for the predicted effects among Christians while accounting for individual and survey wave fixed effects and in an additional endorsement experiment.
  • Communication on COVID-19 to community - measures to prevent a second wave of epidemic
    The manuscript highlights available data on gap in public awareness about recent clinical and scientific facts about COVID-19, insufficient community knowledge about symptoms and preventive measures during COVID-19 and previous MERS-CoV epidemic, and lack of monitoring the community perception and adherence to preventive measures. We also summarize literature evidence about reluctance to change social behavior and disregard recommendations for social distancing among persons who percept to having low risk of infection or complications, and briefly describe destructive psychological response and misleading communications. Our analysis could be translated into important policy changes in two directions: (1) to communicate recent scientific discoveries about COVID-19 pathophysiology to better prepare public opinion to longer period of extraordinary measures; (2) to implement sociological feedback on knowledge, attitudes and practices among general public and some vulnerable social groups.
  • Developing Core National Indicators of Public Attitudes Towards the Police in Canada
    Police departments regularly conduct public opinion surveys to measure attitudes towards the police. The results of these surveys can be used to shape and evaluate policing policy and practice. Yet, the extant evidence base in Canada is hampered by the lack of measurement equivalence and a common data standard. In this paper we present a set of 13 core national indicators that can be used by police services across Canada to ensure measurement quality and draw proper comparisons between regions and track change over time. Using procedural justice theory to help define core concepts, we field a set of 50 measures (chosen from existing national and international surveys) in a quota-sample online survey of 2,527 Canadians. We test whether key constructs--procedural justice, community engagement, distributive justice, effectiveness, bounded authority, legitimacy and willingness to cooperate--are empirically distinct and whether the indicators of each construct have good scaling properties. Then, to produce a set of core national indicators with broad conceptual coverage that can be inserted into existing and/or new surveys, we use a form of substitution analysis to identify a subset of 13 out of the 50 measures that best stand in for each construct. Finally, we show how procedural justice theory can be tested using both the full set of 50 measures and the subset of 13 measures. Consistent with work in the US, UK and Australia, we find that the theory works well, i.e. that procedural justice predicts legitimacy and legitimacy predicts cooperation.
  • The social dimension of participation and completion in MOOCs
    The rapid and impressive development of Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) in less than half a decade has brought about contrasting arguments about their social dimension. This paper investigates how the socio-economic background of learners affects their own experience and their chances of course completion. The analyses test whether learners from low socio-economic status (SES) have lower chances of completing the online course and whether participation in online discussion forums mediates the role of SES. Analyzing data from two MOOCs provided by Stanford University, we find that in both cases a negative association between low SES, course completion and course engagement is observed. Moreover, we find that forum participation has an ambiguous role, reinforcing the advantage of well-educated learners enrolled in one course, while does not have any significant effect for the other course. The paper concludes with some policy implications on social stratification in MOOCs and with some design suggestions for creators of MOOCs.
  • Machine learning as a model for cultural learning: Teaching an algorithm what it means to be fat
    Overweight individuals, and especially women, are disparaged as immoral, unhealthy, and low class. These negative conceptions are not intrinsic to obesity; they are the tainted fruit of cultural learning. Scholars often cite media consumption as a key mechanism for learning cultural biases, but it remains unclear how this public culture becomes private culture. Here we provide a computational account of this learning mechanism, showing that cultural schemata can be learned from news reporting. We extract schemata about obesity from New York Times articles with word2vec, a neural language model inspired by human cognition. We identify several cultural schemata that link obesity to gender, immorality, poor health, and low socioeconomic class. Such schemata may be subtly but pervasively activated by our language; thus, language can chronically reproduce biases (e.g., about weight and health). Our findings also reinforce ongoing concerns that machine learning can encode, and reproduce, harmful human biases.
  • the Butterfly Effect: Coronavirus may Redefine the Global Currency Landscape
    In Trump's political viewpoint, all problems within the U.S. were caused by external problems, such as the rise of China, and thus Trump has rejected globalism and took on the policy of 'America First'. Trump's policy inevitably leads to the decoupling between the U.S. and China, and the recent coronavirus outbreak may catalyze the decoupling process. In short term, the U.S. fiscal and monetary rescue plans may expose the national debt and deficit problems, hurting foreign countries' confidence of the U.S. ability to pay its obligations. In long term, the U.S. has limited ability to stimulate economy without hurting the U.S. dollar's supremacy; whereas China has a greater ability to coordinate fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate economy. May the decoupling continues, the U.S.-China capital war becomes inevitable and it may redefine the global currency landscape.
  • 'Tell me, what are you becoming?' Hannibal and the inescapable presence of the grotesque
    Aesthetics philosopher Noel Carroll affirms that grotesque forms 'are all violations of our standing categories or concepts; they are subversions of our common expectations of the natural and ontological order' (2003: 307). In breaking structural boundaries, consequently, the grotesque appears as deformations, aberrations, exaggerations, metamorphosis, or startling portmanteaus. Given both its nightmarish texture and the evil ingenuity of Dr. Lecter's murders, Hannibal (NBC, 2013-15) ploughs fertile ground in putting together conceptually distant and even contradictory elements. Hence, this article explores how the aesthetic and philosophical principles of the grotesque are a pervasive presence throughout the entire Hannibal TV series, defining its style, characters' personality and metaphorical themes. Putting art theory in dialogue with the Hannibal televised text, this article demonstrates how the grotesque - one of the key concepts in Gothic horror - permeates every level of the show, from the opening credits to the protagonist's inner transformation, converting the narrative into a comprehensive and cohesive liminal artistic ecosystem.
  • "Just Being Us" - Secrecy, authenticity and identity in The Americans
    This article analyzes, from an aesthetic and cultural point of view, two pivotal moments in The Americans, a Cold War spy thriller set in the heart of Ronald Reagan's America. Both samples--one from the mid-series episode "Stingers" (3.10.), and the other from the series finale, "START" (6.10.)--show how the protagonists, two KGB spies living undercover in the United States as a married couple with two kids, disclose their secret identity to characters with whom they have a special emotional bond: their daughter, who has become a devout Christian; and their best friend and neighbor, who happens to be a counterintelligence officer in the FBI. After exploring how identity and performance play a crucial role in the spy-thriller genre, the article investigates whether it is possible for the audience to interpret the feelings and thoughts of characters with multiple identities who excel in the art of duplicity; and whether the viewer can infer intention from performance. Following this epistemological discussion, the article then sets out to explain the sociocultural relevance and timeliness of The Americans as a text whose thematic and aesthetic concerns ultimately revolve around individual identity vis-a-vis collective allegiances and ideologies.
  • Pitch temperatures in traditional farmhouse brewing
    Historically, farmhouse brewers brewed beer from their own grain all over northern Europe, using yeast they maintained in the local community. A large proportion of them, perhaps around 60%, fermented at temperatures close to body temperature, according to a survey of 287 independent accounts of farmhouse brewing practices in 10 different countries. Recent genetic studies indicate that this was possible because the yeasts used in farmhouse brewing, although domesticated, were different from those used in modern brewing. Since wild yeast appears to have high temperature tolerance and modern commercial brewing arose out of earlier farmhouse brewing practices, it seems that the lack of high temperature tolerance in modern brewer's yeast may be due to a loss of function as the yeast adapted to commercial brewing practices.
  • Trade Shocks and Growth: The Impact of the Quartz Crisis in Switzerland
    Agglomeration economies and clustering effects are a key driver of urban growth. They can also be a source of vulnerability when cities and regions specialize in export-intensive industries. Foreign competition, exchange rate movements, macroeconomic volatility, and technological change are all potential threats to exporters, and shocks to these industries can have long-run impacts on population size and growth. In this paper, I study an unusual confluence of all four of these trade shocks: The quartz crisis in Switzerland, which devastated the globally-dominant Swiss watch industry in the 1970s. I document the geographic agglomeration pattern of the industry and the impact of the crisis on exports, employment, and wages. Using a differences-in-differences strategy, I show that this series of trade shocks led to a large and rapid loss of population in affected areas, and a long-run change in growth patterns. I explore the mechanisms behind this population change, including the role of manufacturing employment and immigration. I discuss the implications of these results for theories of urban growth, and contrast them with recent work on the China shock in Europe and the United States.
  • Trends in the use of mind-altering drugs among European adolescents during the Great Recession
    Despite the growing evidence of health-responses to macroeconomic fluctuations, little research has been carried out on the economic reflexes of licit and illicit drug-consumption, especially among teenagers. This paper uses data on adolescents between 15 and 17 years old from 25 European countries to test, if and how the substance-use pattern has changed during the Great Recession. The data come from two cross-sectional waves (2007 and 2011) of the European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs (ESPAD) (n= 137,989 individuals). One percentage point increase in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase [decrease] in the probability of having tried inhalants and cocaine [ecstasy] at least once, by about 0.005 (95% CI: 0.004, 0.006) and 0.001 (95% CI: 0.0001, 0.001) [-0.001 (95% CI: -0.001, -0.001)] respectively. Social protection expenditure reduces the use of inhalants, whereas ecstasy consumption rises. The pattern for cocaine is unclear.
  • Understanding Barriers and Knowledge Related to Hepatitis B for Vietnamese Nail Salon Workers in the United States
    In the United States (U.S.), up to 2.2 million individuals have been chronically infected with hepatitis B virus (HBV). Many nail salon workers are at risk for HBV as they are coming from high-risk and traditionally underserved communities. To understand barriers and knowledge associated with HBV in the Vietnamese nail salon community, the Health Belief Model (HBM) was used to qualitatively assess the health needs for the prevention of HBV among Vietnamese nail salon workers through focus groups and interviews. Results revealed several themes that highlight barriers within the Vietnamese nail community. Major themes were the lack of knowledge related to hepatitis B, including significant misconceptions related to symptoms, and how hepatitis B is transmitted and prevented. There were also several barriers to health care access within the Vietnamese nail community including the cost of health care, long work hours, lack of insurance and lack of understanding of current community resources. Additionally, discrimination and stigma related to those infected with hepatitis B emerged as a theme from this data. Those interviewed also noted that the nail training and licensing they received did not highlight hepatitis B and other infectious diseases that can be spread within the nail salon.
  • Black-White Disparities in Pediatric Asthma in Metropolitan Areas, 2015: Assessing the Roles of Residential Inequality and Segregation
    Little research has explored how black-white residential inequality and residential segregation are associated and moderate black-white disparities in pediatric asthma. This paper contributes to this limited literature by using data for children in the 2015 American Housing Survey Metropolitan samples. Controlling for black-white inequalities in residential characteristics, segregation, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics, we find that the black-white disparity in pediatric asthma remains and slightly widens. We also find that the level of segregation, as measured by the index of dissimilarity and black isolation, moderates the association between children's race and asthma. In areas with lower levels of dissimilarity and black isolation, whites' predicted probabilities of asthma are greater than those of black children. However, when the index of dissimilarity is at least 60% and the black isolation is at least 50%, the racial disparity reverses, and black children's predicted probabilities of asthma are significantly higher than those of whites.
  • Global food systems in the post-coronavirus era
    Coronavirus is currently dealing a concussive blow to global food systems, but this crisis could also present a rare opportunity to uncover and address longstanding social and environmental problems. The purpose of this paper is to shed additional light on this rapidly developing situation by (i) outlining the vulnerabilities and inequities in the global food system that have been exposed by the coronavirus, (ii) identifying the emergent sociotechnical shifts that have occurred in the initial stages of the post-coronavirus era, and then (iii) interpreting these vulnerabilities, inequities, and shifts from the standpoint of two key theories in environmental sociology: the treadmill of production and ecological modernization.
  • Crusading for Moral Authority: Christian Nationalism and Opposition to Science
    Numerous studies show biblicist Christianity, religiosity, and conservative political identity are strong predictors of Americans holding skeptical attitudes toward publicly controversial aspects of science, such as human evolution. We show that Christian nationalism--meaning the desire to see particularistic and exclusivist versions of Christian symbols, values, and policies enshrined as the established religion of the United States--is a strong and consistent predictor of Americans' attitudes about science above and beyond other religious and political characteristics. Further, a majority of the overall effect of political ideology on skepticism about the moral authority of science is mediated through Christian nationalism, indicating that political conservatives are more likely to be concerned with particular aspects of science primarily because they are more likely to be Christian nationalists. Likewise, substantial proportions of the well-documented associations between religiosity and biblical "literalism" with views of science are mediated through Christian nationalism. Because Christian nationalism seeks to establish a particular and exclusivist vision of Christianity as the dominant moral order, adherents feel threatened by challenges to the epistemic authority undergirding that order, including by aspects of science perceived as challenging the supremacy of biblicist authority.
  • An Online Structured Political Event Dataset based on CAMEO Ontology
    Political activities and interactions between different global entities are becoming growing field for data-intensive computing with a wide scope of research opportunities for both social science and computer science researchers. This research needs to be carried out at a local (limited to a particular region) and global scale, often divided in temporal manner. It is also useful to have the most recently updated dataset for relevant analysis. For these purposes, we need timestamped, geolocaated structured information about political interactions. Keeping this in mind, we develop a datatset that complies with Conflict and Mediation Event Observation (CAMEO) ontology inspired by the "who-did-what-to- whom" format. We use a distributed framework for data collection and processing that works in real-time with Apache Kafka and SPARK in order to process a global collection of news data in different languages (i.e., Spanish, Arabic) and generate those structured event data in real-time. We also provide an API for easy access to the data. In this paper, we describe how the data is represented, collected, and processed, how we generate the most up-to-date dataset with dynamic ontology extension, and how to access the data and possible analytical problems that can be addressed by building a model on the dataset.
  • Essay on "What is it like to be a bat"
    This paper discusses how we could attribute different degrees of responsibility, freedom, penalty to an AI of the future with enhanced capabilities - up to having a conscience. One major obstacle would be how to correctly evaluate such an Ai: its abilities, competences, and possibilities, in such a way that we obtain a correct result, which would further enable us to decide on, and apply, the right policies. In this context, Thomas Nagel's work, "What is it like to be a bat", is considered, and I explore if, at least to the extent of most practical needs of the society related to the topic, it might or not be necessary to really be able to "experience from inside" in order to decide upon and attribute certain degrees of freedom, responsibility, etc to such an AI.
  • Mapping inequalities in school attendance: the relationship between different dimensions of socioeconomic status and forms of school absence
    In this paper, we investigated whether and to what extent dimensions of socioeconomic background (parental education, parental class, free school meal registration, housing status, and neighborhood deprivation) predict overall school absences and different reasons for missing school (truancy, sickness, family holidays and temporary exclusion) among 4,620 secondary pupils in Scotland. Participants were drawn from a sample of the Scottish Longitudinal Study comprising linked Census data and administrative school records. Using fractional logit models and logistic regressions, we found that all dimensions of socioeconomic background were uniquely linked to overall absences. Multiple measures of socioeconomic background were also associated with truancy, sickness-related absence and temporary exclusion. Social housing and parental education had the most pervasive effect across these forms of absenteeism.
  • Who's writing Open Access (OA) articles? Characteristics of OA authors at Ph.D. granting institutions in the USA
    The adoption of open access (OA) publishing has grown rapidly in the last two decades; an increasing share of the research literature is available to the public at no cost and with no restrictions. Despite the enormous growth of OA publishing, few studies have explored the characteristics of the authors who choose to publish their research as OA articles. Understanding who produces the increasing number of OA articles is crucial for publishers and the research community seeking to democratize the results of knowledge production. We investigated the number of OA articles authored by 182,320 scholars with known demographic and institutional characteristics at American research universities across 11 broad fields of study. Results show that male scholars at more prestigious institutions (e.g., AAU members) and scholars with greater job security (e.g., higher professorial rank) are likely to publish more OA articles. Securing federal research grants is also a significant predictor of OA publishing activity. Although OA is growing in terms of the quantity of articles published, participation in OA publishing appears to be skewed towards scholars in STEM fields with greater access to resources and greater job security.
  • Procedure-Content Interaction in Attitudes to Law and in the Value of the Rule of Law: An Empirical and Philosophical Collaboration
    This chapter begins with an empirical analysis of attitudes towards the law, which, in turn, inspires a philosophical re-examination of, and a distinctive approach to, the moral status of the rule of law. In Section 2, we empirically analyse nationally representative survey data from the US about law-related attitudes and legal compliance. Consistent with prior studies, we find that people's ascriptions of legitimacy to the legal system (labelled here 'legitimacy') are predicted strongly by their perceptions of the procedural justice and lawfulness of police and court officials' action. Two factors emerge as significant predictors of people's compliance with the law: (i) their belief that they have a (content-independent, moral) duty to obey the law (which is one element of legitimacy, as defined here); and (ii) their moral assessment of the content of specific legal requirements (referred to here as 'perceived moral content of laws'). We also observe an interactive relationship between these two factors. At higher levels of perceived moral content of laws, felt duty to obey is a better predictor of compliance than it is at lower levels. And, similarly, perceived moral content of laws is a better predictor of compliance at higher levels of felt duty to obey. This suggests that the moral content incorporated in specific laws interacts with the normative force people ascribe to legal authorities by virtue of other qualities, specifically here procedural justice and lawfulness. In Section 3, the focus shifts to a philosophical analysis, whereby we identify a parallel (similarly interactive) modality in the way that form and content mutually affect the value of the rule of law. We advocate a distinctive alternative to two rival approaches in jurisprudential discourse, the first of which claims that Lon Fuller's eight precepts of legality embody moral qualities not contingent on the law's content, while the second denies any independent moral value in these eight precepts, viewing them as entirely subservient to the law's substantive goals. In contrast, on the view put forward here, Fuller's principles possess (inter alia) an expressive moral quality, but their expressive effect does not materialise in isolation from other, contextual factors. In particular, the extent to which it materialises is partly sensitive to the moral quality of law's content.
  • Provision of noxious facilities using a market-like mechanism: A simple implementation in the lab
    We study the provision of a public project that globally behaves as a public good but locally behaves as a private bad. This scenario imposes two problems: (i) finding a compensation that makes the project acceptable for the pre-determined host, and (ii) securing the budget to pay for the project and the required compensation. We use a market-like mechanism with two useful properties for this scenario: players can either contribute or request subsidies to fund the public project, and players have veto power over the desired project quantity. In our game, two players benefit from a waste incinerator facility, whereas the third group member, the host, is harmed if the facility is too large. We analyze the efficiency and the re-distributive potential of this mechanism, with and without communication, among group members. We find that the probability of positive provision did not differ with and without communication. However, average provided quantities with respect to the efficient quantity increased from 54% to 81% with communication. We also find that contributions fell below the Lindahl taxes, allowing the players who benefit from a larger facility to accrue most of the efficiency gains. The latter result is consistent with the infrequent evidence of veto threats as a bargaining strategy.
  • Learning from Null Effects: A Bottom-Up Approach
    A critical barrier to generating cumulative knowledge in political science and related disciplines is the inability of researchers to observe the results from the full set of research designs that scholars have conceptualized, implemented, and analyzed. For a variety of reasons, studies that produce null findings are especially likely to be unobserved, creating biases in publicly accessible research. While several approaches have been suggested to overcome this problem, none have yet proven adequate. We propose a new model in which scholars post short "null results reports" online that summarize their research designs, findings, and interpretations. We discuss a template for these reports and illustrate their utility with two experimental studies focused on the naturalization of immigrants in the United States and attitudes toward Syrian refugees in Jordan. We conclude with a discussion of how to overcome incentive problems and inculcate a discipline-wide norm of publicizing null findings.
  • Biases in Survey Estimates of Neonatal Mortality: Results from a Validation Study in Urban Areas of Guinea-Bissau
    Neonatal deaths (i.e., those occurring within 28 days of birth) account for close to half of all deaths among children under age 5 worldwide. In most low and middle-income countries, data on neonatal deaths come primarily from household surveys. We conducted a validation study of survey data on neonatal mortality in Guinea-Bissau (West Africa). We used records from an urban health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) that monitors child survival prospectively, as our reference dataset. We selected a stratified sample of 599 women aged 15-49 years old among residents of the HDSS, and collected the birth histories of 422 participants. We cross-tabulated survey and HDSS data. We used a mathematical model to investigate biases in survey estimates of neonatal mortality. Reporting errors in survey data might lead to estimates of the neonatal mortality rate that are too high. This may limit our ability to track progress towards global health objectives.
  • An Agricultural Wealth Index for Multidimensional Wealth Assessments
    Social scientists have increasingly used asset-based wealth scores, like the DHS wealth index, to assess economic disparities. However, current indices primarily capture wealth in globalized market economies, thus ignoring other forms of prosperity, such as success in agricultural activities. Using a simple extension to the standard estimation of the DHS Wealth Index, we describe procedures for estimating an Agricultural Wealth Index (AWI) that complements market-based wealth indices by capturing household success in agricultural activities. We apply this procedure to household data from 129 DHS surveys from over 40 countries with sufficient land and livestock data to estimate a reliable and consistent AWI. We assess the construct validity of the AWI using benchmarks of growth in both adults and children. This alternative measure of wealth provides new opportunities for understanding the causes and consequences of wealth inequality, and how success along different dimensions of wealth creates different social opportunities and constraints for health and well-being.