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SocArXiv papers

  • The Cost of Widowhood: A Matching Study of Process and Event
    Widowhood is a common life transition entailing far-reaching consequences. We examine the consequences of widowhood in a novel way by assessing the consequences of bereavement for meaningful comparison groups allowing us to evaluate the impact of bereavement before and after the event. The analysis of the cost of widowhood for mental health and economic wellbeing focuses on two scenarios: unexpected and expected widowhood. The first scenario models a two-period process in which effects of widowhood occur only after the event. The second models a three-period process in which effects of widowhood also occur before spousal loss. US Health and Retirement Study data and a combination of random-coefficient modelling, propensity score matching, and regressions are used to estimate the consequences of widowhood from ten years before to six years after spousal loss. Results on mental health show a slow but full recovery for unexpected widowhood, but larger and lasting declines for expected widowhood. Findings on economic wellbeing show sizable losses for expected widowhood due to the economic cost of the pre-widowhood period. In sum, the impact of widowhood is smaller for unexpected compared to expected events. Our approach advances knowledge about spousal loss, but also research on life events more generally.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic and fertility decline in Costa Rica: A brief plunge due to psychosocial and economic factors and a baby bust driven by migration decisions
    The national birth registry shows a substantial baby bust in 2021 - the first full year plus nine months into the COVID-19 pandemic. The fertility of native Costa Rican women dropped by 13%. This decrease seems to be a continuation of preexisting fertility decline rather than an outcome of the pandemic. In contrast, a brief plunge in conceptions during the first full month of the pandemic (April 2020) decreased the fertility rate in January 2021 by as much as 24% for some groups. This plunge was a response to the hardships caused by pandemic mitigation measures as well as uncertainties and fears concerning the novel disease rather than to the physiological harm of the disease itself. The decrease in births among immigrant women (who contribute one-fifth of the birth rate) during the pandemic was 78% larger than among native women, driven mostly by pandemic-induced migration decisions. The data hint at a pandemic baby boom in low-SES communities and, especially, in families with several children.
  • The paradox of local inequality: Meritocratic beliefs in unequal localities
    A puzzle has emerged amidst rising inequality: why do people profess high levels of belief in meritocracy even as income gains are increasingly concentrated at the top? In light of contradictory theories and evidence, we undertake the first assessment of the relationship between local income inequality and meritocratic beliefs outside the United States, using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study. We find that the positive relationship between country-level income inequality and meritocratic beliefs identified in the recent literature does not translate straightforwardly below country level: there is no robust relationship between local income inequality and meritocratic beliefs in England. However, there is a robust--and somewhat paradoxical--positive association between high local income inequality and meritocratic beliefs among those with the lowest incomes. On average, respondents with annual household incomes of PS10,000 are five points more likely (on a 100-point scale) to believe their hard work will pay off if they live in the most rather than the least unequal places in England. We also show that this applies beyond the specific case of meritocratic beliefs: low-income respondents in unequal places are also notably more satisfied with their own (low) income than similar respondents in more equal localities. In line with system justification theory, we argue that belief in meritocracy serves as an important tool of psychological resilience for low-income individuals who regularly come into contact with others more economically fortunate than themselves: though it legitimates their current position at the bottom of the status hierarchy, this belief also offers the promise of future advancement. While this reduces concern about the psychological effects of growing local income inequality on the most economically vulnerable, it also suggests that there is little prospect of demand for systemic economic change emerging from what might have been considered the most likely places.
    Pilkades is the highest village level democratic party held to elect and determine the head village within 5 years of office. Gerlang village is one of the villages in Batang Regency which is directly adjacent to Batur District, Banjarnegara. Pilkades held simultaneously in several villages in Batang Regency. This democratic party in various places there is a social construction in society, namely money politics. Money politics in the Pilkades is more extreme than the presidential election which is at the level of a country. This is due to the large amount of money spent by the candidates in this political contestation. Since the beginning of Gerlang Village Election, there has never been such a thing as money politics. Money politics is considered unnatural by the people in the village. This is what attracted the author to research this village in order to find out why it was not constructed by money politics like Pilkades in others places
  • Police practitioner views on the challenges of analysing and responding to knife crime
    Knife crime remains a major concern in England and Wales. Problem-oriented and public health approaches to tackling knife crime have been widely advocated, but little is known about how these approaches are understood and implemented by police practitioners. To address this knowledge gap, this article draws on semi-structured interviews and focus groups with 44 police personnel to consider the processes and challenges of applying problem-oriented and public health approaches to knife crime. Our findings show that knife crime was seen as a complex social problem which would not be solved by 'silver bullets'; prevention was prioritised and the limitations of enforcement were widely acknowledged; there was an emphasis on understanding and responding to vulnerability and risk; discussion of 'holistic' and 'whole systems' approaches was evident (but these concepts were rarely defined); and the problem of serious violence was viewed as a shared, multi-agency issue that the police could not tackle alone. Various challenges were also evident, most notably around the analysis of the drivers and patterns of knife crime and the evaluation of knife crime interventions. The article concludes by discussing the implications of the findings for knife crime prevention and the implementation and advancement of problem-oriented and public health approaches to policing.
  • The relation between the parental Mean Absolute Age Difference (MAAD) and the fertility outcomes in Spain
    Despite the fact that some authors have described the patterns and the relationship between age at first marriage (Esteve, Cortina and Cabre, 2009; Kolk, 2015) and the possible outcomes in fertility (Eurostat, 2018; Rotering and Bras, 2019), little is known about the age differences of parents at the time of their children's birth (Dudel, Cheng, and Klusener ,2020). In Europe, age gaps between partners has remained stable, only showing a moderate but constant decrease. However, in Spain, the absolute age difference between fathers and mothers has been increasing during the last years. This work aims to account for the age gap between partners (fathers and mothers) and the possible impact it has on Spanish fertility. The main research question is, may a lower age gap between parents influence fertility trends? With that purpose, a counterfactual scenario has been designed following the method proposed by Stoeckel and Chowdhury (1984). This counterfactual scenario accounts for the percentage of children that may have been born for those women that, in the hypothetical case, have a lower age gap between parents. The results show distribution by the mother's and father's age from 1975 to 2019 at the time of the children's birth, focusing on the first kid to give a percentage of increase in births assuming that the women who has 1 to 4 years age gap, where moved to the group with less than 1-year gap with the corresponding CBR. Further research will focus on age preference attitudes to understand if we face a process where age difference mediate on fertility behaviours or a mix also with the capacity to have children
  • Legislature Size and Welfare: Evidence from Brazil
    How does legislature size impact public service provision? Despite the importance of institutional design for democratic governance, the effect of legislative features on citizen welfare remains little understood. In this paper, we use a formal model to show that increasing legislature size improves public goods delivery. We argue that changes in bargaining costs depend on whether additional legislators share the executive's party affiliation: More opposition members reduce the equilibrium public goods provision, while more government-aligned members increase it. We test this theory by exploiting sharp discontinuities in city council size in Brazil. We show that an additional city councilor has a 91% chance of belonging to the mayoral coalition, and this significantly improves primary school enrollment and infant mortality rates. To explore possible mechanisms, we surveyed 174 former city councilors and analyzed 346,553 bills proposed between 2005 and 2008. This paper has implications for the design of representative institutions.
  • Migrant deaths at borders: the impact of 'big events' on attitudes towards immigration and immigrants
    The death of migrants attempting to cross borders to flee their countries has become a recurring phenomenon in recent years. Nevertheless, the ways in which such events shape public views towards immigration and immigrants in receiving countries have remained largely unexplored. Building on a dimension of Blumer's theory of prejudice as a sense of group position, we theoretically substantiate the relevance of studying the role of 'big events' in shaping intergroup relations. Empirically, we focus on one of the deadliest migrant shipwrecks that occurred in the Mediterranean Sea in recent history, the 2013 Lampedusa shipwreck, where 368 migrants lost their life. Using data from the European Social Survey (Round 6) for Italy, the country at the receiving end of this crossing, we show that, in the aftermath of the event, respondents are willing to accept a higher number of immigrants to their country. This effect attenuates over the two months following the shipwreck yet does not completely disappear. The shipwreck does not lead to an overall change in how respondents perceive the impact of immigrants to their country, potentially a result of increased polarization in anti-immigrant attitudes across the political ideology spectrum. Our study highlights the relevance of extending the sociological literature's focus beyond theories of group threat in order to explain prevailing levels of attitudes towards immigration and immigrants.
  • Radical Flanks of Social Movements Can Increase Support for Moderate Factions
    Social movements are critical agents of social change, but are rarely monolithic. Instead, movements are often made up of distinct factions with unique agendas and tactics, and there is little scientific consensus on when these factions may complement - or impede - one another's influence. One central debate concerns whether radical flanks within a movement increase support for more moderate factions within the same movement by making the moderate faction seem more reasonable- or reduce support for moderate factions by making the entire movement seem unreasonable. Results of two online experiments conducted with diverse samples (N = 2,772), including a study of the animal rights movement and a preregistered study of the climate movement, show that the presence of a radical flank increases support for a moderate faction within the same movement. Further, it is the use of radical tactics, such as property destruction or violence, rather than a radical agenda, that drives this effect. Results indicate the effect owes to a contrast effect: use of radical tactics by one flank led the more moderate faction to appear less radical, even though all characteristics of the moderate faction were held constant. This perception led participants to identify more with and, in turn, express greater support for the more moderate faction. These results suggest that activist groups that employ unpopular tactics can increase support for other groups within the same movement, pointing to a hidden way in which movement factions are complementary, despite pursuing divergent approaches to social change.
  • Can I trust you? Differentiating contributions of stereotypes, gender, and faith in others
    Stereotypes are often harmful social heuristics that emerge through sometimes-untrue generalizations about a group of people. Often, these groups are classified by their skin color or other superficial features. Our study mimicked real life by introducing participants (N = 121) to artificially colored images of human faces (blue versus red faces) and to stereotyping information about one of the colors. Participants indicated how much they trusted group members and completed other self-rated scales regarding trust. This study found that the stereotyping information could effectively bias participant ratings, regardless of what color face they initially preferred, F(3,117) = 11.26, p <0.001. Participants were more likely to trust female faces regardless of the color, and marginal evidence revealed that general faith in others contributes to stereotype formation. Suggestions for future directions are discussed.
  • Ciencias sociales en contextos de represion: Analisis bibliometrico de la produccion historica de la Corporacion de Estudios para Latinoamerica (1979-1989)
    Este articulo presenta un analisis bibliometrico de la produccion cientifica de la Corporacion de Estudios para Latinoamerica (CIEPLAN), el centro de estudios mas importante durante la dictadura y transicion democratica en Chile. El analisis se realiza sobre un conjunto de registros bibliograficos (n = 145), referencias (n = 4.055) e informacion biografica de los autores, durante 1979-1989. Se analizan tres dimensiones: produccion cientifica y areas tematicas; colaboracion y coautoria; y referencias o consumo de informacion. Se utiliza estadistica descriptiva, modelamiento tematico no supervisado y Analisis de Redes Sociales (SNA, por sus siglas en ingles). Los resultados muestran una tendencia constante en la produccion cientifica y temas centrados en topicos clasicos de la economia asociados con temas de desigualdad y politica. Ademas, los analisis de colaboracion y referencias muestran la existencia de una comunidad compuesta por reconocidos academicos y miembros de la elite politica chilena centrales en la produccion intelectual y en la red de referencias. Estos hallazgos permiten denominar a CIEPLAN como una de las principales comunidades epistemicas durante la recuperacion y transicion democratica chilena, en especifico, durante los primeros gobiernos democraticos donde varios miembros fueron reclutados para asumir importantes cargos en el ejecutivo. Hasta hoy, estos actores siguen influenciando el proceso de formulacion de politicas publicas en Chile.
  • Share on Back Benches: Caste Composition of Bihar's Media
    In the first-pass survey of Bihar's Media, we could not find any journalists from the deprived sections of society in authoritative positions. Suspecting that even if they have not become classroom monitors, they can be found somewhere on the back benches, we decided in June 2009 to enlarge the scope of the survey. This time, in addition to the 42 institutions of Hindi and English media, 5 Urdu newspapers published from Patna were also included in the survey. Covering 230 journalists of 47 media institutions in the survey, we found that 73 per cent posts are held by upper-caste Hindus (Brahmin, Bhumihar, Rajput, Kayastha). OBC Hindus have only 10 per cent; Muslim Ashrafs 12 per cent and 4 per cent is covered by Pasmanda (Backward) Muslims. The presence of women is about 4 per cent. We found only 3 Dalit journalists in media institutions in Patna.
  • Religiosity, Beliefs in the Supernatural, Perceived Social Support, Resilience, and Well-being of University Students during the COVID-19 pandemic.
    The COVID-19 pandemic infection control measures had severely impacted mental well-being providing an insight into possible protective parameters. With religion always playing a role during challenging times, this study investigated the effects of beliefs on the supernatural and religiosity on the mental well-being of university students during the COVID19 pandemic and how social support and resilience can mitigate this effect. 185 university students aged between 17 to 42 years old responded to online surveys on their theistic beliefs, religiosity, well-being, perceived support, and resilience. Pearson's correlations and single and sequential mediation analyses showed that theistic beliefs did not significantly predict well-being (r = .05) while religiosity mediated the relationship (r = .18, effect size = .035). Sequential mediation analysis showed that resilience and perceived social support did not mediate the relationship between religiosity and well-being. Perceived social support alone significantly mediated religiosity and well-being with an effect size of .039. Religiosity was found to be a mediator and both resilience, while perceived social support was non-significantly positively associated with well-being. Analysing the open-ended questions on the students' beliefs in the supernatural and paranormal, as well as the impact of the pandemic restrictions on their interests, insights where the majority of them did not attribute supernatural causes to the pandemic were garnered. In line with previous studies during the pandemic, the students also reported having too little social interaction and too much time with family to affect them negatively. The findings reveal how several factors were associated with well-being as well as the relationship between religiosity and well-being that may aid in the mental well-being of future challenging times.
  • Before and After the Fall: Geography of Soviet and Post-Soviet Physics Surveyed via Leading Journals
    Using a dataset of corresponding addresses in the Journal of Experimental and Theoretical Physics (JETP) and JETP Letters, which are the leading Soviet physics venues, we perform a large-scale survey of the geography of Soviet and Post-Soviet physics in 1975-2015, capturing the changing roles of different USSR republics and cities, Post-Soviet states (especially Ukraine) and foreign countries, and paying attention to the role of Russian-speaking emigrants. Such a detailed and data-driven geography, based on two leading multidisciplinary physics publications, serves as a novel addition to the fields of history of physics and USSR\Post-communist science and geopolitics.
  • The Emperor's New Schrodinger's Cat.
    There is good news for Schrodinger's famous (or infamous) feline: this paper shall show that he or she is not alive and dead whilst unobserved in his or her box, but alive or dead. All arguments to the contrary rest on an illegitimate confusion between ontology (the theory of being) and epistemology (the theory of knowledge).
  • Multi Co-Moment Structural Equation Models: Discovering Direction of Causality in the Presence of Confounding
    We present the Multi Co-moment Structural Equation Model (MCM-SEM), a novel approach to estimating the direction and magnitude of causal effects in the presence of confounding. In MCM-SEM, not only covariance structures but also co-skewness and co-kurtosis structures are leveraged. Co-skewness and co-kurtosis provide information on the joint non-normality. In large scale non-normally distributed data, we can use these higher-order co-moments to identify and estimate both bidirectional causal effects and latent confounding effects, which would not have been identified in regular SEM. We performed an extensive simulation study which showed that MCM-SEM correctly reveals the direction of causality in the presence of confounding. Subsequently, we applied the model empirically to data of (1) height and weight and to (2) education and income, and compared the results to those obtained through instrumental variable regression. In the empirical application, MCM-SEM yielded expected results for (1), but also highlighted some caveats when applied to (2). We provide an MCM-SEM R-package and recommendations for future use.
  • Socioeconomic Inequality in Non-cognitive Skills among Young Adolescents in Korea: Gaps, Trends, and Heterogeneity
    We examined family SES inequalities in non-cognitive skills among young Korean adolescents. Using nationally representative data for 6th graders and 9th graders between 2004 and 2014 and school-fixed effects models, we showed how internal motivation, self-esteem, sociability, perseverance, and the composite score from those four indicators differ across students with varying family SES. Additionally, we examined how family SES gaps vary by grade and test score, as well as across the quantiles of non-cognitive skills. Our analyses uncover several significant new pieces of evidence regarding educational inequality. To begin, we find robust family SES inequalities across all non-cognitive outcomes regardless of model or sample specification. However, we find no discernible systematic trends in the decade following 2004. In terms of the role of academic performance, we find that academic performance partially but considerably explains family SES differences in non-cognitive outcomes. More than half of total family SES gaps persist among students with identical test scores. Additionally, we find evidence that academic performance significantly moderates family SES inequality in non-cognitive skills. Family SES gaps are greatest at the lowest scores and at the highest scores, implying that both compensatory and reinforcing family advantages are at play. For 9th graders, we find strong evidence that the correlation between non-cognitive skills and academic performance is unequally distributed across family SES groups and increases over time. Finally, we find that family SES disparities are greatest at the top of the non-cognitive score distribution, which is largely explained by the advantage of the top quartile SES families.
    This activity aims to examine the Koran teachers related to efforts to overcome obstacles in teaching reading the Koran at TPQ Mansya'ul Fikriyah. This research was conducted because of the many problems that arise in this regard. Especially among today's children who prefer to play rather than learn to read the Koran. Many parents prioritize their children learning general lessons rather than learning to read the Koran. The method used is qualitative in the form of interviews. The results of this study are about what obstacles are experienced by the Koran teacher and efforts in teaching and learning, this is conveyed to the Koran teacher so that in learning the children do not feel bored. The obstacles that exist in learning to read the Koran consist of internal and external barriers, from these obstacles the Koran teacher seeks an effective, efficient, and fun way of learning. This of course cannot be separated from the supervision and appeal of the head of the TPQ Mansya'ul Fikriyah institution itself.
  • The maternal mortality consequences of losing abortion access
    We update estimates of the maternal mortality impact of no abortions occurring in the U.S. following the recent release of new national and state abortion incidence data for 2020. This estimate quantifies the increase in maternal deaths that would occur after a total abortion ban solely due to the greater mortality risk of continuing pregnancy to term compared to having an abortion. We estimate the number of additional U.S. maternal deaths by race/ethnicity that would be caused if no abortion occurred, following previously published procedures and using published 2020 statistics on maternal mortality, births, and abortions. After the first year of no abortion occurring, we estimate increased exposure to the risks of pregnancy would cause an increase of 210 maternal deaths per year (24% increase), from 861 to 1071. The increase would be greatest among non-Hispanic Black people, for whom it would be 39%. We also estimate, by state, the number of additional maternal deaths caused by no abortion occurring in the 26 U.S. states that either have banned or the Guttmacher Institute estimates will soon ban abortion. We find that increases in some states would be as great as 29%, while in others, because of already extremely low abortion rates and numbers, less than 1 additional death would be expected. Banning abortion will likely change maternal mortality in ways beyond exposing more people to the existing risks of maternal death; any increase in maternal mortality due to these changes would be in addition to our estimates.
  • Segplot: A New Tool for Visualizing Patterns of Segregation
    We present a new tool for visualizing segregation patterns--a segplot--that is applicable to two-group and multigroup segregation problems. The visualization shows the entire segregation pattern, as well as the relevant reference distribution used in many measures of segregation. For more complex, high-dimensional segregation patterns, we also present an algorithm that can be used to "compress" the pattern to obtain a visually clearer result. We demonstrate the utility of the segplot and the compression algorithm using empirical examples of segregation between neighborhoods, occupations, and schools. Lastly, we present a convenient way to produce segplots using R.
  • The relevance of tracking and social segregation for growing achievement gaps by parental education in lower secondary school. A longitudinal analysis in France, Germany, the United States, and England
    There is substantial variation in the degree of social stratification in students' achievement across countries. However, most research is based on cross-sectional data. In this study, we evaluate the importance of social origin, namely parents' education, for achievement inequalities during lower secondary school using recent longitudinal microdata for France, Germany, the United States, and England, and evaluate whether country differences can be attributed to different tracking systems or the social segregation of schools. We find substantial SES-gaps in math achievement progress in all four countries but more pronounced gaps in England and Germany. Yet, within school SES-gaps are similar across countries suggesting that the allocation of students to schools drives country differences. Moreover, we find that between-school tracking in Germany accounts for a large share of the SES-gaps, whereas course-by-course tracking seems less important in the other countries. The role of schools' social segregation is similar across countries.
  • Global Care Policy Index 2021 Country Report: Taiwan
    Taiwan, officially the Republic of China (ROC), is a country in East Asia. Gender equality in Taiwan is relatively progressive, with women's rights guaranteed in the workforce by the Act of Gender Equality in Employment. While Taiwan's labor laws offer a baseline of protections for family caregivers, these policies are still ultimately inadequate resulting in a score of 6.14 out of 10 in Sub-Index A of the Global Care Policy Index. Taiwan's overall score for the GCPI (5.57 out of 10) was also pulled down by its lack of protection for domestic workers in Sub-Index B. As domestic workers are considered to be privately employed, they are thus excluded from coverage by the Labor Standards Act - Taiwan's primary labor law. Taiwan received a 4.99 out of 10 for Sub-Index B of the GCPI which measures protections for domestic workers.
  • Global Care Policy Index 2021 Country Report: South Korea
    South Korea, officially the Republic of Korea, is a high-income country in East Asia with a population of 51 million. Saddled with patriarchal Confucian traditions, South Korea continues to perform poorly on gender equality issues despite recent state and civil society advocacy. Paid domestic work in South Korea is a highly feminized, stigmatized, and irregular profession that comprises two main groups of workers: older local female workers, and stigmatized co-ethnic diasporic Korean migrant workers of foreign citizenship (mostly Chinese citizens) who are referred to as joseonjok. Despite its poor performance in gender equality measures, South Korea scored well for Sub-index A of the Global Care Policy Index with a score of 7.51 out of 10. This is driven by the country's relatively strong regulatory frameworks for family caregivers, though the enforcement of these protections is sometimes lacking. South Korea's comprehensive pregnancy and maternity leave protections, dependent care leave, and flexible work arrangement provisions contributed to its high Sub-Index A score, while its inadequate and underdeveloped employment protections for domestic workers resulted in a poorer performance of 6.34 out of 10 in Sub-Index B. Overall, South Korea scored 6.92 out of 10 for the GCPI as a whole.
  • Extended Geographies of Socio-Technical Transitions: A case for Human Agency through (Digital Agriculture) Regimes of Practice Transition
    Geography of socio-technical (sustainability) transitions literature may be new; however, it is already making an immense contribution to the extensive socio-technical transition literature. The contributions are, however, limited to engagement with concepts like space, power, and scale, which are core in geography. In this critical review, I argue that agency-structure issues in the socio-technical transition literature, which also has a long history in geographical scholarship, offer a window of opportunity for extended geography of socio-technical transition. I further argue for the conscious engagement with (social) practices approaches within the geography of socio-technical transitions to provide novel ontological insights that make human agency explicit in socio-technical changes. These arguments herein are based on a three-fold justification of practice theory. The practice approaches could complement the ontological understanding of transition processes of the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP) without undermining its foundational theories. They offer a relationality in transitions, which allows for positioning human agency within explanatory spheres of transition. Finally, practices provide agency-sensitive explanations of social change beyond micro-level human behaviour than structural approaches. Through these points, I propose an approach Regimes (Digital Agriculture) Practice Transition that allows for explicit inclusion of human agency in transition
  • Accommodating adults with intellectual disabilities and high support needs in Individual Supported Living arrangements
    This research investigated Individual Supported Living (ISL) arrangements, which have been developed to provide appropriate and preferred homes for persons with intellectual disabilities and high support needs. ISL may take different forms. It is not focussed solely on the physical housing setting, as the nature of supports available to the individual is central to the model. It may include a mix of formal and informal supports, as well as opportunities for individual growth and development across a range of social and community roles tailored to the needs, preferences, strengths, vulnerabilities and ambitions of the individual. The ISL Framework is built around three fundamental assumptions: All adults with disabilities can live in an ISL arrangement if they are provided with the appropriate supports. Persons with disabilities do not have to live together. Persons with disabilities in an ISL arrangement do not have to live alone or independently. Study participants highlighted the benefits of quality ISL arrangements and the challenges in developing and maintaining them. Coordination of disability and housing policies and practices will enhance the sustainability of these arrangements. This includes the need to recognise and coordinate access to affordable and suitable housing, as well as in-home support. Three interrelated areas for further policy development were identified in addition to the need for a national framework and guidance to support the establishment and continuation of ISL arrangements.
  • Dynamics of Sabotage: Antonio Orendain, Cesar Chavez, and Union Politics in the Rio Grande Valley, 1965-1982
    This paper provides a structuralist account of how instances of sabotage, purging, and the defeat of defecting and rival factions occurs within movement organizations. I draw on Michels' notion of competing leadership, along with insights from social movements to develop the notion of tactical sabotage as a structural mechanism that explains sabotage, purging, and the elimination of rival leaders' careers, in particular rank-and-file leadership. This case study draws on the history of the Texas Farm Workers Union, led by Antonio Orendain in the 1970s, and its conflict with the United Farm Workers led by Cesar Chavez. This paper explores three key mechanisms that enabled UFW leadership to 1) actively block resources such as money and supplies to Orendain, 2) leverage political connections to ignore Orendain's campaign for collective bargaining, and 3) obviate Orendain out of the UFW narrative and memory in Texas. These moments provide an opportunity to reveal political and structural processes that can explain incidents of repression, purging, and elimination of organic leadership in both labor and social movements writ large both historically, and contemporarily. Working paper presented at the 2022 Mobilization Conference in San Diego, California. Please check with the author for updates or corrections before citing the paper.
  • "We're Still on That Treadmill": Class Privilege, Reflexivity, and the Disruptive Potential of Permaculture
    Permaculture, short-hand for "permanent agriculture," is an ethical system and set of engineering and design principles, aimed at growing food locally while building community. Many adherents believe that it carries the potential to transform and re-localize our economic system. To explore these views, we interviewed 56 permaculturists in the western Canadian provinces of Alberta and British Columbia. Findings demonstrate that participants view the non-hierarchical, self-reliance, and exchange-based aspects of permaculture as potentially liberating. At the same time, they feel stuck and embedded within existing capitalist market relations, exemplified by land ownership, costs of implementing permaculture landscapes, and the need for employment-based income. Many tensions likewise emerge from their own class positions and the privileges associated with, and benefits accruing from, current capitalist modes of exchange. We conclude by discussing implications for theory and empirical research in environmental sociology and cognate areas.
  • The phenomenon of batik online business among the younger generation of Paweden village, Buaran district, Pekalongan regency
    'Technology in the world, to be precise, in Indonesia is changing very quickly, one of which is for a seller who sells his merchandise online. This circumstance can make it easier for consumers to trade their products. The phenomenon where young people began to engage in the world of online business occurred in Buaran regency. One of the districts of Buaran is in the village of Paweden. Product marketing has increased since the Covid-19 pandemic. This makes Paweden's youths enthusiastic about replicating or releasing the latest products. Online business is almost always the main occupation of the younger generation in the village of Paweden In this case, the author uses qualitative methods to obtain accurate data about online business in Paweden village. The role of social media towards online business. From the younger generation of Paweden Village, they use market places or social media as business motives that make social media as a business promotion medium. Social media provides an opportunity to interact more closely with users, and can be a medium for forming a community network. It is undeniable that this online business has become rampant among the younger generation at this time. Most of those who do business online are no longer in school or have graduated from school, but some are still in school or college to increase their economy and their families. An online business is a business with a network of online marketing and sales. With a little capital, this online business can run well if you try it, its sales assets can reach more than 1 million and per month can be up to tens of millions. In fact, most teenagers who are in this online business can buy land, vehicles in the form of cars and motorcycles for millions. This phenomenon greatly affects the social conditions of the people of Paweden village. How about it, many are interested in later learning an online businessman without spending a lot of capital. The younger generation in Paweden village mostly sells or promotes their products through market places such as Shopee, Lazada, TokoPedia and others.
  • Dissecting Dissent: A Multilevel Integrative Framework of Nonviolent Resistance
    Research into nonviolent resistance movements has surged over the past decade. The successes and failures of these movements has been the main focus of academic interest, with the explorations of why and how these movements emerge fading into the background. The aim of this paper is to survey and synthesise the field and create a multilevel systematic framework of factors that impact the onset and effectiveness of nonviolent resistance movements. In total, over forty-one factors relating to the structure of society and the agency of the resisters have been identified. These factors have been placed into seven categories which belong to three levels of analysis. On a macro-, meso- and micro-level, these categories include factors relating to the political and economic system, modernization, the country's international relations, the balance of power within society, and the grievances, resources and capacity of the resistance group. The presented framework allows scholars to systematically analyse nonviolent resistance cases in the future, which contributes to assessing the relevance and weight of the identified factors.
  • Geographical Mobility and Occupational Achievement. A Longitudinal Analysis of South-to-North Internal Migration in Italy
    Geographical mobility is a major driving force underlying demographic and social change, but surprisingly fewer studies have focused on how it influences occupational success and the intergenerational reproduction of social inequalities. This work studied the effect of internal mobility on occupational status in Italy, investigating if male and female occupational status benefited from South-to-North migration, and if the migration benefit or disadvantage changed according to the family status and the social class of origin. Empirical analyses are based on the Italian Household Longitudinal Survey by means of a set of fixed effects linear regression panel models combined with the coarsened exact matching (CEM). Results show that only men experience a migration benefit, whereas women experience a migration disadvantage, which increases when they move after the union formation and the transition to parenthood. Finally, the effect of geographical mobility differs according to the social class of origin only for men, since those coming from the upper classes experience a much higher migration benefit than those from the medium and the lower ones. We thus show that geographical mobility is an additional source of advantage for individuals from the upper classes, and its positive effect on male occupational success cumulates with the family-related one, increasing the social distances between individuals located in different social strata.
  • Effect Heterogeneity and Causal Attribution in Regression Discontinuity Designs
    Research investigating subgroup differences in treatment effects recovered using regression discontinuity (RD) designs has become increasingly popular. For in- stance, scholars have investigated whether incumbency effects on candidate per- sistence or winning again vary by candidate characteristics (e.g., gender) or local context. Under what conditions can we interpret subgroup differences in treat- ment effects as a causal result of the moderating characteristic? In this study, we explore the difference between RD effect conditionality that is simply associated with versus causally driven by another variable. To make this distinction explicit and formal, we define two alternative estimands and lay out identification as- sumptions required for each, along with corresponding estimation procedures. In doing so, we highlight how investigating RD effect conditionality that is causally driven by another variable involves several additional challenges related to in- terpretation, identification, and estimation. We apply our framework to recent studies and offer practical advice for applied researchers considering these alter- native quantities of interest.
  • The Deforestation Effects of Trade and Agricultural Productivity in Brazil
    This paper quantifies the relative footprint of trade and agricultural productivity on deforestation in Brazil between 2000 and 2017. Using remote-sensing data, we find that these two phenomena have distinct effects on land use. Greater exposure to new genetically engineered soy seeds is associated with faster deforestation through the expansion of cropland. We find no association between exposure to demand from China and deforestation - although, trade induces conversion of cropland to pastureland. Our results suggest that, when taken together, agriculture productivity gains, and not trade, were the main driver of deforestation and the expansion of the agriculture sector.
  • Divergent trajectories: Three dimensions of child poverty during the Great Recession in Ireland
    While research has investigated the effects of the Great Recession on the Irish economy using economic indicators or cross-sectional household-level data, this research note applies group-based multi-trajectory modelling to provide a more nuanced approach. Using nationally representative, longitudinal data from the Growing Up in Ireland study, we analyse patterns in three common measures of economic well-being (financial strain, disposable income, and material deprivation) across Irish households in the period leading up to, during and after the Great Recession, and subsequently, break down the characteristics for each group of trajectories. We identify six distinct trajectory clusters, which all indicate declining income and increasing financial strain from the start to the height of the economic depression. However, trajectory groupings show that experiences were far from uniform, with previous economic well-being and demographic characteristics shaping the household experience. Implications for future research are discussed.
  • Affect, Positivity and Self-Censorship: Normative Communication Strategies Among Canadian Influencers
    This research study looks at how the affective labour practices that influencers engage in limit their self-expression in order to appeal to large audiences and/or potential brand partnerships. Drawing upon analysis of hashtag data, I show how influencers' self-expression is structured using a specific language of recommendation, which focuses on framing posts in an upbeat, positive way. I argue that the specific language of recommendation identified in this analysis offers a more profound understanding of how affective labour in the influencer industry extends beyond the relationship between influencer and follower.
    This study aims to explain the factors that cause other Pekalongan students to prefer Iain Pekalongan to other state universities. The second is to explain how much influence parents have on the decisions of other Pekalongan students to decide to study at Iain Pekalongan. The biggest attraction for parents to include their children is Iain Iain Pekalongan. In this study, the author applies a quantitative method with a phenomenological approach. The author conducted research with Google and distributed it to Iain Pekalongan students, from this research this study had the following results: 1) the research showed the reason the majority of students chose Iain Pekalongan from other universities was caused by the decision of parents 2) the results of both studies showed that Shiva's parents want their children to explore Islam more deeply 3) the results of the three studies show that parents advise their children to go to another area of Pekalongan because the distance is closer to home 4) the results of the four studies show that parents advise their children to go to another area of Pekalongan after leaving the school. accepted in public universities.
  • Guerilla eugenics: Gene drives in heritable human genome editing
    CRISPR-Cas9 genome editing can and has altered human genomes, bringing bioethical debates about this capability to the forefront of philosophical and policy considerations. Here I consider the underexplored implications of CRISPR-Cas9 gene drives for heritable human genome editing (HHGE). Modification gene drives applied to HHGE would introduce a novel form of involuntary eugenic practice that I term guerilla eugenics. Once introduced into a genome, stealth genetic editing by a gene drive genetic element would occur each subsequent generation irrespective of whether reproductive partners consent to it and irrespective of whether the genetic change confers any benefit. High incidence of an initially-rare gene drive in small human communities could occur within 200 years, with evolutionary fixation globally on the order of 1000 years. Following any introduction of heritable gene drives into human genomes, practices intended for surveillance or reversal also create fundamental ethical problems. Current policy guidelines do not comment explicitly on gene drives in humans. These considerations motivate my call for decision-makers to declare an explicit moratorium on gene drive development in heritable human genome editing.
  • Account analysis of tiktok @mangzisf in effect of student fashion deparment of KPI for the 2021 UIN Abdurrahman Wahid
    Fashion has become one of the most important modes of fashion for today's society. Especially for the millennial generation who make fashion a reference or lifestyle for the community. The existence of fashion is influenced by several things, including influences from outside cultures, and fashion styles from influencers also affect. fashion is growing rapidly, especially in the 2000s era until now, fashion is experiencing changes that are increasing advanced from year to year. The fashion used by public figures or influencers is very influential on fashion trends today, whatever the influencer uses feels like it will be used by the community. This study targets the fashion style of KPI student batch 2021. They wear stylish fashion that closely follows the times, which nowadays is better known as OOTD (outfit of the day). The purpose of this study was to find out how much influence the @mangzilasf TikTok account had on KPI student outfits. Because it is often seen that KPI students are very well-dressed, problems arise that will result in research for the future. this study used qualitative methods with continuous interviews to produce saturated interview results. Besides that, it also uses sampling and documentation techniques to strengthen the results of the research that has been carried out.
  • rcme: A Sensitivity Analysis Tool to Explore the Impact of Measurement Error in Police Recorded Crime Rates
    It has been long known that police recorded crime data is susceptible to substantial measurement error. However, despite its limitations, police data is widely used in regression models exploring the causes and effects of crime. Furthermore, because of the complex error mechanisms affecting police data, attempts to adjust for their impact are rare and tailored to specific settings (crime types, measurement models, outcome models, and precursors or consequences of crime). Here we introduce rcme: Recounting Crime with Measurement error, a new R package to enable sensitivity assessments of the impact of measurement error in analyses using police recorded crime rates across a wide range of settings. Using two real world examples - i) the link from violent crime to disorder, and ii) the role of collective efficacy in mitigating criminal damage - we demonstrate how rcme can be used to summarise the impacts of measurement error in empirical models used in research and practice.
  • The changing shape of spatial inequality in the United States
    Spatial income disparities have increased in the United States since 1980. Growth in this form of inequality is linked to major social, economic and political challenges. Yet, contemporary patterns, and how they relate to those of the past, remain insufficiently well understood. Building on population survey microdata spanning 1940-2019, this paper uses group-based trajectory modelling techniques to identify distinct sets of local labor markets based on the evolution of their income levels. We find that the increase in spatial inequality since 1980 is almost entirely driven by a small number of populous, economically-important, and resiliently high-performing `superstar' city-regions. Meanwhile, since 1940, much of the rest of the urban system has continued to converge toward the mean. We examine the demographic, economic and social characteristics of these different trajectories, identifying catch-up regions, declining regions, long-term winners, and possible future superstars. There is considerable turbulence within the convergence process, consisting of regions that are moving both upward and downward in the system. We conclude by exploring implications for the American urban-regional system in the mid-21st century, considering the challenges in overcoming the growing split between superstar locations and the rest of the country.
  • Mortality forecasts by age and cause of death: How to forecast both dimensions?
    Mortality forecasts by age and cause of death are important for more efficient spending on, for example, health care and medical technology. However, there is a reluctance in including the cause of death dimension to the forecast, as forecasts by cause are confronted with many methodological problems. While some of these problems have been addressed in the last two decades, an important remaining issue with forecasts by cause is their inconsistence with all- causes forecasts. This problem relates to how changes in mortality by age and cause interact. So how can we forecast this relation in a coherent manner? To address this problem, we use a model framework based on a Compositional Data Analysis (CoDA) approach which models 1) age and cause simultaneously; 2) cause-of-death distribution within each age group and 3) age-at-death distribution within each cause. We specify multiple models within each of the three frameworks to obtain a better understanding of the age and cause interactions. The results show that forecasting cause-of-death distribution within each age group generally provides the most accurate forecasts and allows for the forecast by cause and for all-cause to be consistent with one another.
  • Childcare arrangements among immigrant families in France: the role of socio-economic resources, migratory background and public policies
    Lower participation of children of immigrants in Early Childhood Education (ECEC) has been documented across many destination countries and increasing their access has become a policy priority. While it is established that families' socio-economic background account for a large part of these differences, the role of other factors, of which families' norms and preferences regarding child upbringing, is less clear in explaining these differences. This paper analyses childcare arrangements of immigrant families in France, and more specifically families of migrants from outside of the EU. We use the Longitudinal Survey on the Integration of First-time Arrivals (Elipa 2), representative of third country nationals receiving a first residence permit in France in 2018. Around one fourth of respondents lived with a child under the age of 3 (sample of 1460 children) for which the survey collected the primary caretaker. We examine how families' socio-economic position and migratory background affect their childcare arrangements using both descriptive and multivariate statistical methods. While low financial resources of immigrant families were the main obstacle in accessing formal childcare arrangements when compared to the general population, there were also important variations within this group. Use of formal childcare varied by family type and country of origin: whereas in the first case they were mainly linked to other family characteristics, in the latter they persisted in multivariate analyses. Disadvantaged families (unemployed/inactive parents, low income, precarious housing conditions) also had lower participation in formal childcare.
  • Monitoring environmental performance in tourism
    Multi-site field experimentation is critical to creating practically relevant context-independent and scientifically robust knowledge (Viglia & Dolnicar 2020). Yet, field experimentation is not common in tourism research. When used, it is typically implemented at one specific field site (e.g., Kallbekken & Saelen 2013; Knezevic Cvelbar et al. 2019), severely limiting the generalisability of findings in several ways: conclusions are valid only for a specific geographical region, a specific type of business, a specific consumer segment, or a specific season of the year. Field experiments are rare and typically limited to one field site because it is not only expensive and labour-intensive to implement them, but also to collect the data on a continuous basis. Automatic data collection would likely increase uptake of field experimentation, increasing also the generalisability of findings. Making a methodological contribution to tourism research, this study proposes - and provides initial proof of concept for - an automated data collection system for environmental key performance indicators in tourism businesses. Ultimately, the system we propose will consist of equipment measuring different aspects of business operations with negative environmental consequences (e.g., electricity use, water use, waste generated). The equipment transmits measurements continuously and in short intervals from a heterogeneous set of tourism businesses. In this proof of principle study, we illustrate the concept using plate waste (uneaten food left behind). The proposed automatic data collection system provides immediate feedback to management, allows managers to benchmark their performance against the competition, and serves as real-world laboratory for field experimentation by tourism researchers who develop and test interventions to reduce plate waste by changing consumer behaviour. Consumers have been identified as the most promising target for food-related carbon emissions reduction (Poore & Nemecek 2018), and plate waste is 92% preventable (Papargyropoulou et al. 2016) without compromising enjoyment (Dolnicar et al. 2020).
  • Morphologically similar, but regionally distinct: Perdiz arrow points from Caddo burial contexts in the American Southeast
    Generally considered diagnostic of Late Prehistoric Toyah assemblages, Perdiz arrow points are characteristic of the transition from the Late Prehistoric to the Protohistoric. If larger Perdiz arrow points from Caddo burials are conceived of as products of trade and/or exchange with Toyah groups, then those with longer blade lengths provide inference to shifts in Caddo selective preference, while those with shorter blade lengths evince local approaches to resharpening and/or retouch that were uniquely Caddo. This study asks whether linear shape variables convey discrete regional resharpening strategies, whether morphological trajectories differ between the northern and southern behavioural regions, and whether morphological disparity differs between larger and smaller size classes, as defined by differences in blade length. Results demonstrate distinct regional resharpening strategies and divergent morphological trajectories for Perdiz arrow points included as Caddo mortuary offerings in the northern and southern behavioural regions. Perdiz arrow point shapes were not found to differ in the large size class between the northern and southern behavioural regions, demonstrating consistency in Caddo preference, or--alternatively--Toyah manufacture. However, differences in the small size class suggest discrete local approaches to resharpening and/or retouch by Caddo knappers. Caddo groups that occupied the southern behavioural region may have also been less selective, preferring Perdiz arrow points with a greater range of diversity in shape and size, while their counterparts to the north preferred a more standardized product.
  • Does maternal overnutrition carry child undernutrition in India?
    Studies in low-and middle-income countries where nutrition transition is underway provides mixed evidence of the double burden of maternal overnutrition and child undernutrition among mother-child pairs. Shifting dietary patterns and rapid increase in overweight/obesity among adults with persistent child undernutrition indicate that India is experiencing nutrition transition and double burden of malnutrition. Hence, the study explores the presence of and the factors associated with mother-child dyads of over-and undernutrition in India.
  • Memes as culture repositories - social emotions during "Stay at home" phase in Poland from public health perspective
    Aim. The main goal of the article is to create a socio-medical picture of COVID-19 pandemic from Polish Internet memes. Memes are part of a collective memory and could help understand ongoing social processes during the pandemic. Methodology. We perform qualitative analysis of the selected memes shared on the Polish Internet. Among over 2000 gathered memes 25 examples of memes were dedicated to #stayathome phase (18.03-07.04.2020). Results. We have distinguished three main topics, areas and functions: 1) uncertainty and anxiety in everyday life; 2) managing with isolation and making sense of measures; 3) building support community and solidarity with medical staff. We found a relatively high number of supportive, prohealth memes during the stay-at-home phase in comparison to prepandemic era as well as other phases of the pandemic. Conclusions. Memes do not only have humorous functions, but also carry new information as they give context to a new situation or event. Thus, memospheres should be monitored and used in public health awareness campaigns helping people coping with uncertainty, the internalization process of measures acceptance as well as promoting help-giving attitudes. Memes could be utilized as health communication techniques to influence Internet users.
  • Impact of Health on Driving for America's Older Adults: A Nationwide, Longitudinal Study
    By 2030, one in every five Americans will be 65 or older. To better serve the mobility needs of a rapidly aging population, a better understanding of older adults' driving behavior is needed. This study explores the impact of health on driving reduction for America's older adults, using a nationwide, longitudinal dataset from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS). I propose two outcome variables: having driven in the past month, and having driven beyond nearby places; and measure health using overall self-rated health status and specific sensory, mobility and physical conditions. Controlling for socio-demographics, residential patterns, personal fixed effects, time fixed effects, and regional fixed effects, I find that older adults with lower self-rated health were less likely to drive or drive beyond nearby places. The magnitudes of such effects vary by race but not by gender. I also identify specific health conditions that could predict driving reduction. The findings imply that in the near future, there will be a large number of older adults suffering from unmet travel demands due to declining health conditions. Hence, planners and policy makers should be proactive in seeking for solutions, including using my findings to identify at-risk older drivers and provide various types of mobility assistance.
  • The Roads One Must Walk Down: Commute and Depression for Beijing's Residents
    As a vital aspect of individual's quality of life, mental health has been included as an important component of the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals. This study focuses on a specific aspect of mental health: depression, and examines its relationship with commute patterns. Using survey data from 1,528 residents in Beijing, China, we find that every 10 additional minutes of commute time is associated with 1.1% higher probability of depression. We test for the mechanisms of the commute-depression link and find that commute is associated with depression as a direct stressor rather than triggering higher work stress. When decomposing commute time into mode-specific time, we found that time on mopeds/motorcycles has the strongest association with depression. Moreover, the commute-depression associations are stronger for older workers and blue-collar workers. Hence, policies that could reduce commute time, encourage work from home, improve job-housing balance or increase motorcyclists' safety would help promote mental health.
  • Estimating Mixed-Mode Urban Trail Traffic Using Negative Binomial Regression Models
    Data and models of nonmotorized traffic on multiuse urban trails are needed to improve planning and management of urban transportation systems. Negative binomial regression models are appropriate and useful when dependent variables are nonnegative integers with overdispersion like traffic counts. This paper presents eight negative binomial models for estimating urban trail traffic using 1,898 daily mixed-mode traffic counts from active infrared monitors at six locations in Minneapolis, Minnesota. These models include up to 10 independent variables that represent sociodemographic, built environment, weather, and temporal characteristics. A general model can be used to estimate traffic at locations where traffic has not been monitored. A six-location model with dummy variables for each monitoring site rather than neighborhood-specific variables can be used to estimate traffic at existing locations when counts from monitors are not available. Six trail-specific models are appropriate for estimating variation in traffic in response to variations in weather and day of week. Validation results indicate that negative binomial models outperform models estimated by ordinary least squares regression. These new models estimate traffic within approximately 16.3% error, on average, which is reasonable for planning and management purposes.
  • Modeling bike share station activity: Effects of nearby businesses and jobs on trips to and from stations
    The purpose of this research is to identify correlates of bike station activity for Nice Ride Minnesota, a bike share system in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area in Minnesota. The number of trips to and from each of the 116 bike share stations operating in 2011 was obtained from Nice Ride Minnesota. Data for independent variables included in the proposed models come from a variety of sources, including the 2010 U.S. Census; the Metropolitan Council, a regional planning agency; and the Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul. Log-linear and negative binomial regression models are used to evaluate the marginal effects of these factors on average daily station trips. The models have high goodness of fit, and each of 13 independent variables is significant at the 10% level or higher. The number of trips at Nice Ride stations is associated with neighborhood sociodemographics (i.e., age and race), proximity to the central business district, proximity to water, accessibility to trails, distance to other bike share stations, and measures of economic activity. Analysts can use these results to optimize bike share operations, locate new stations, and evaluate the potential of new bike share programs.
  • Individual and Differential Harm in Redistricting
    Social scientists have developed dozens of measures for assessing partisan bias in redistricting. But these measures cannot be easily adapted to other groups, including those defined by race, class, or geography. Nor are they applicable to single- or no-party contexts such as local redistricting. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified framework of harm for evaluating the impacts of a districting plan on individual voters and the groups to which they belong. We consider a voter harmed if their chosen candidate is not elected under the current plan, but would be under a different plan. Harm improves on existing measures by both focusing on the choices of individual voters and directly incorporating counterfactual plans. We discuss strategies for estimating harm, and demonstrate the utility of our framework through analyses of partisan gerrymandering in New Jersey, voting rights litigation in Alabama, and racial dynamics of Boston City Council elections.