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SocArXiv papers

  • Patrilocality and Child Sex Ratios in India
    In multi-level and multi-layered foundations of gendered approaches for understanding the kinship system, son preferences, and male-skewed child sex ratios in India; patriarchy, and patrilineality have received greater attention than patrilocality. To fill this gap, in this study, we construct a measure of patrilocality and examine its association with skewed child sex ratios. We hypothesize that households practice sex selection and daughter discrimination because of patrilocal norms that dictate the later life co-residence between parents and sons. Our findings reveal that the child sex ratio, the sex ratio at birth, and the sex ratio at last birth are positively correlated with the patrilocality rates across states and districts of India. The relationship holds across the multiple robustness checks. Findings, although not surprising, emerge from the robust empirical analyses at a time when child sex ratios continue to worsen in India, notwithstanding the country's socio-economic progress. We conclude that in the absence of strong social security measures and lack of preference for old-age homes amidst the accepted practice of patrilocality coupled with increasing lower fertility norms, the dependency on sons will continue and further lead to the continuation of sex selection in India.
  • Public preference for sustainable land use policies - Empirical results from multinomial logit model analysis
    Public preferences for sustainable land use policy instruments and the motivations behind such preferences are important to make appropriate policies. Based on survey data (n = 309) from northeastern Somalia, we examined preferences for a set of land use policy instruments relative to no policy (i.e. the current status quo) and how cultural worldviews predict such preferences. We used a multinomial logit model to analyze the comparative evaluation of choices due to its interpretability and robustness to violations of normality. Overall, the results show that the respondents are likely to consent to all types of land use policy instruments relative to no policy and are more inclined to market-based and informational policy instruments. Specifically, preferences for regulatory policy instruments are positively associated with hierarchy and egalitarian worldviews and are negatively associated with fatalism and individualistic worldviews with only hierarchy and fatalism are significant. The market-based policy instrument is desirable to all cultural worldviews except fatalism, but only egalitarian and individual worldviews are significant. Preferences for informational policy instruments are positively associated with all cultural worldviews but only egalitarian worldviews showed a significant effect. Although there are some contradictions, these results are broadly consistent with the proposition of the cultural theory of risk. This study highlights that preferences for land use policies are heterogeneous with cultural worldviews mainly explaining the sources of this heterogeneity. It is evident that the respondents were willing to consent to land use policies relative to the status quo of no policy and indicates the need for concerted effort to reduce land degradation and deforestation in the country. We, therefore, recommend that policymakers incorporate the different ways that humans perceive and interpret social-environmental relations into policy decisions to achieve sustainable policy outcomes.
  • Beyond collective intelligence: Collective adaptation
    We develop a conceptual framework for studying collective adaptation: the process of iterative co-adaptation of cognitive strategies, social environments, and problem structures. Going beyond searching for "intelligent" collectives, we integrate research from different disciplines to show how collective adaptation perspective can help explain why similar collectives can follow very different and sometimes counter-intuitive trajectories. We further discuss how this perspective explains why successful collectives appear to have a general collective intelligence factor, why collectives rarely optimize their behaviour for a single problem, why their behaviours can appear myopic, and why playful exploration of alternative social systems can be useful. We describe different approaches for the study of collective adaptation, including computational models inspired by evolution and statistical physics. The framework of collective adaptation enables the integration and formalization of knowledge about human collective phenomena and opens doors to a rigorous transdisciplinary pursuit of important outstanding questions about human sociality.
  • Nuclear Policy Re(V)iew from the Periscope: SLBM and SLCM Policy Options for the 2022 Biden White House
    Advances in nuclear weapon technologies from - and the corresponding evolution in the threat landscape posed by - non-allied nations over the past four years underscores the exigency of the United States (U.S) in updating its stated national security policies. Here we review and suggest options for the 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) regarding the low-yield submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM-N) and submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) programs. The 2018 NPR called for programmatic changes to counteract the evolving threat environment and allow for greater deterrence flexibility. These programs include modernization of existing technologies and creation of novel weapons systems. Of these changes, two new programs were started to develop low-yield, sea-based, non-strategic weapons. These options are designed to counter any perceived gaps in U.S. regional deterrence capabilities. We enumerate several policy options likely to be considered by the Biden White House. Our proposed solution calls for maintenance of the W76-2 program and the continuance of the low-yield SLCM-N program; we present our argument along the axes of technical and cost considerations, service system preferences, tailored response capabilities, ensured support and defense of our allies, and prevention of escalation to war.
  • The Logic of Term Limits Pledges
    This article offers a rationale for candidates who voluntarily pledge to term limits. My analysis is built on a standard political agency model to which I add an election campaign where candidates can commit not to seek a second term. Pledging to term limits allows candidates to signal their private type and insulate themselves from career concerns. By doing so, candidates leverage the fact that the representative voter endogenously prefers to elect a candidate who does not seek reelection because she either has on average more desirable attributes, distorts her decisions to a lesser extent, or both. As a result, candidates who pledge to term limits have a higher probability of being elected in the first place. I characterize the equilibria of a model specification in which politicians differ with respect to their policy preferences and uncover circumstances in which term limits pledges are informative and improve the voter's welfare.
  • What is the current state of knowledge and distribution of evidence on established policies and programs to regulate international wildlife trade? A systematic map protocol
    Background: The international trade of wildlife (animals and plants) provides critical resources for human communities worldwide and contributes to local, national, and international economies. However, increasing demand presents a significant threat to both species and ecosystems as well as wildlife-centered livelihoods. Concerns regarding illicit trade of wildlife and unsustainable harvest has propelled international wildlife trade regulation to the top of political and conservation agendas. Consequently, a broad range of interventions have been established to regulate the trade and address biodiversity decline. To gain a more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of international wildlife trade interventions, this protocol sets out the parameters for a systematic map which will comprehensively collate and describe the extent and distribution of the evidence base. The resulting map aims to provide insight to guide future research and inform practice. Methods: This systematic map will identify, map, and characterize the available evidence on the impacts of established policies and programs to address international wildlife trade. Specifically, the systematic map will describe: (1) the volume and distribution of studies that have examined impacts of various interventions on conservation, biological, and socioeconomic outcomes; (2) research methodologies that have been used to evaluate impacts; (3) distribution of studies on particular taxa and geographical areas; and (4) identify evidence gaps in need of more research. We will search two publication databases and several organizational and topical websites for relevant published articles and grey literature. In addition, a call for literature will be issued among relevant research networks. The titles, abstracts, and full texts of captured studies will be assessed against inclusion criteria. Double screening will be carried out on a subset of studies to ensure consistency. Relevant information from studies will be extracted using an a priori codebook. The resulting map will consist of descriptive statistics, a heat map in the form of a matrix, and a narrative synthesis describing characteristics of included studies.
    We report on continuing research on the British scientific elite, intended to illustrate a proposed new approach to elite studies, and based on prosopographical data on Fellows of the Royal Society born from 1900. We extend analyses previously reported of Fellows' social origins and secondary schooling so as to take their university careers into account. The composite term 'Oxbridge' is called into question, as Cambridge appears historically to have been far more productive of members of the scientific elite than Oxford. However, Fellows from more advantaged class backgrounds do have a clearly higher probability than others of having attended Cambridge, Oxford or London, rather than universities outside of 'the golden triangle' - an outcome only partially mediated through private schooling. The 'long arm' of family of origin is thus apparent, although private schooling has been more important in helping Fellows from managerial rather than from professional families to gain entry to an elite university. Family influences on Fellows' fields of research also remain, even though a further major factor is the universities they attended. A 'royal road' into the scientific elite, which Fellows from higher professional and managerial families have the highest probability of having followed, can be identified: that leading from private schooling to both undergraduate and postgraduate study at Cambridge. But the most common pathway, taken by 20% of all Fellows, is that leading from state schooling to undergraduate and graduate study at universities outside of the golden triangle. Fellows from higher professional, but not managerial, families show a distinctively high probability of having avoided this pathway; but it is that most common for Fellows of all less advantaged class origins. The case of the British scientific elite would suggest that detailed and disaggregated analyses of processes of elite formation can show these to be much more diverse than has often been supposed.
  • BIAS Word inventory for work and employment diversity, (in)equality and inclusivity (Version 1.0)
    The language used in job advertisements contains explicit and implicit cues, which signal employers' preferences for candidates of certain ascribed characteristics, such as gender and ethnicity/race. To capture such biases in language use, existing word inventories have focused predominantly on gender and are based on general perceptions of the 'masculine' or 'feminine' orientations of specific words and socio-psychological understandings of 'agentic' and 'communal' traits. Nevertheless, these approaches are limited to gender and they do not consider the specific contexts in which the language is used. To address these limitations, we have developed the first comprehensive word inventory for work and employment diversity, (in)equality, and inclusivity that builds on a number of conceptual and methodological innovations. The BIAS Word Inventory was developed as part of our work in an international, interdisciplinary project - BIAS: Responsible AI for Labour Market Equality - in Canada and the United Kingdom (UK). Conceptually, we rely on a sociological approach that is attuned to various documented causes and correlates of inequalities related to gender, sexuality, ethnicity/race, immigration and family statuses in the labour market context. Methodologically, we rely on 'expert' coding of actual job advertisements in Canada and the UK, as well as iterative cycles of inter-rater verification. Our inventory is particularly suited for studying labour market inequalities, as it reflects the language used to describe job postings, and the inventory takes account of cues at various dimensions, including explicit and implicit cues associated with gender, ethnicity, citizenship and immigration statuses, role specifications, equality, equity and inclusivity policies and pledges, work-family policies, and workplace context.
  • Chocs de revenu et education des enfants en presence d'imperfections du marche du credit et de l'assurance : Mecanismes decisionnels en Ethiopie
    Les chocs de revenus subis par les menages les plus demunis peuvent inciter les parents a retirer leurs enfants de l'ecole pour les introduire sur le marche du travail, lorsque les autres instruments de maitrise des risques sont insuffisants. Ces reponses aux chocs a court terme peuvent entrainer des consequences a plus long terme sur le developpement du capital humain des enfants. En utilisant des donnees issues d'une enquete menages en Ethiopie, nous examinons l'impact des chocs pluviometriques sur les decisions d'investissement dans le capital humain a moyen terme. Les resultats suggerent que les chocs climatiques reduisent significativement l'investissement dans le capital humain. Dans ce contexte, les mecanismes psychologiques jouent un role important dans le processus decisionnel des menages a l'origine d'une descolarisation des enfants. Nous avancons que l'exposition aux chocs de revenus exacerbe la perception de l'investissement dans le capital educatif comme relativement risque, toutes choses egales par ailleurs. La forte prevalence des chocs de revenu (experiences naturelles) ou le ressenti de cette prevalence aggrave l'aversion au risque des menages, en accentuant la concavite de leur fonction d'utilite.
  • On the Mythical Origin of Yajnopavita
    Puranas which get written in accordance with the Vedas recreate the astika ethos in a completely different social, temporal, and geographical context. Devanga Purana dated to around 1532 CE and written after the social revolution in Kalyana in the twelfth century reaffirms the strength of the Vedic tradition by embracing the liberal and esoteric elements in Upanishadic thought. In this essay I look at the formation of Vedic ethos by focusing on a mythological narrative concerning the origin of yajnopavita. I claim that the yajnopavita was invented to intensify the will to non-knowledge.
  • Biting Off More Than They Can Chew: Food Waste at Hotel Breakfast Buffets
    Tourists bite off more than they can chew at hotel breakfast buffets. Food waste from hotel buffets means unnecessary food cost for hotels as well as an unnecessary burden on the environment. The present study measured food waste at a hotel breakfast buffet and identified the following guest and breakfast characteristics as being significantly associated with higher plate waste: more children in the guest mix, more Russians and less Austrians or Germans, fewer hotel guests in the breakfast buffet area as well as more buffet stations being set up. These insights contribute to knowledge on environmental sustainability in tourism, pointing to interesting market segments for targeting in high demand periods as well as promising target segments for interventions (e.g., families) and indicate that simple measures such as rearrangements of the breakfast room may reduce food waste.
  • The cognitive mechanisms involved in the "DEGREE ADVERB + PROPER NAME" construction: Evaluating proposals from Construction Grammar and Formal Semantics
    There are broad disagreements between existing models regarding the mental representations and processes involved in the "DEGREE ADVERB + PROPER NAME" construction, including disagreements regarding the semantics of the degree device, the category status of the proper name, the construction's expressed meaning and its (non-)compositionality, and, crucially, the operation that holds between the degree device and the proper name. Our corpus-based investigation into two competing models from Construction Grammar and Formal Semantics shows that these models collectively make useful contributions to the scientific understanding of this construction, but neither is empirically adequate. Most importantly, we find that the construction participates in several non-predicted expressed meanings; multivariate analyses show that the three amenable to statistical analysis cluster with different semantic usage-features. We argue that the best way to account for the construction's semantics-pragmatics is via a previously-dismissed cognitive mechanism: an enrichment-/strengthening-type operation whereby a pragmatically-supplied scale is added to the message.
  • Canon Fodder and the Intimacy of Dialogues
    Michael Burawoy's 2021 essay, "Decolonizing Sociology: The Significance of W.E.B. Du Bois," forges dialogues between the scholar denied and established theorists with the aim of reconstructing the sociological canon. My commentary situates the author's essay and his own Du Boisian turn in a long career dedicated to reflexive science and recomposing theory. I reflect on the seemingly innocuous notion of a dialogue itself: its implications for sociological theory and practice, and how it supports decolonial efforts. Thinking with Toni Morrison, Hazel Carby, Lisa Lowe, and others, I offer a sketch of a decolonial methodology--what I call a Du Boisian shadowplay--that brings into view the intimate dimensions of imperialism. Ultimately, such a feminist methodology reconstructs dialogues that reflect on researcher standpoints and nested imperial histories; and in the face of today's social crises, nurtures dialogues that are animated by an ethic of love.
  • It runs in the family: parental influence on adolescents' compliance with social distancing measures during Covid-19 lockdowns
    Compliance with public health measures of adolescents who are often unfairly portrayed as spreaders of the Coronavirus is essential for controlling the pandemic. But does adolescents' compliance develop independently from their parents? Using nationally representative longitudinal data and cross-lagged Structural Equation Panel Models I study compliance with social distancing measures of 6,754 triplets that comprise the adolescent child (age 19), their mother, and father during two national lockdowns in the UK. Results show that adolescents have the lowest and their mothers have the highest levels of compliance, and compliance generally drops over time. Moreover, parents, particularly mothers have significant influence on their adolescent child's compliance. The child also has, albeit smaller effects on their parents' compliance. Parental influence on adolescents' compliance documented here thus redistributes some of the responsibility off adolescents towards all generations and calls for public health policies and campaigns that consider these family dynamics.
  • Percepcion de desigualdad economica y su influencia sobre la justificacion de las diferencias de ingreso legitimas
    This study analyzes the effect of information about economic inequality on the justification of wage inequality. Using a representative sample of the metropolitan area of Santiago, Chile (n=732), we implemented an experimental survey design to replicate the results reported by Kriss-Stella Trump (2017) for the context of Sweden and the United States about wage gap justification. Our results show that factual wage information does not impact the overall wage gap justification. However, we evidenced that information about wage inequality increases the justification of wage gaps according to high and low-status occupations, which is enhanced by the joint exposure to the condition that seeks to motivate the social system justification. The study's methodological limitations are discussed, along with the implications of the evidence for the substantive analysis of attitudes toward inequality and economic redistribution.
  • Coding, causality, and statistical craft: The emergence and evolutionary drivers of moralistic supernatural punishment remain unresolved
    The target article from Turchin et al. assesses the relationship between social complexity and moralistic supernatural punishment. In our evaluation of their project, we argue that each step of its workflow -- from data production and theory to modeling and reporting -- makes it impossible to test the hypothesis that its authors claim they are testing. We focus our discussion on three important classes of issues: problems of data, analysis, and causal inference.
  • Perbandingan Penerbitan dan Harga Buku Mengikut Genre di Malaysia dan Jepun Menggunakan Data Akses Terbuka dan Simulasi Monte Carlo
    [The article is written in Bahasa Malaysia] Reading habits are often associated with an increased cognitive level. However, book genre can also affect the cognitive level. This is because different book genres can be attributed to different type of knowledge and tendency towards a specific book genre can be viewed as a preference toward a specific type of knowledge. Research on Malaysian's interest and the tendency towards book genre and type of knowledge can be investigated using the publication data of each book genre and its prices. The objective of this research is to analyze and compare the book publications and the average price of each book's genre in Malaysia with Japan. Comparison was done based on book categorization genre strategy to 12 book genre. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method data, Malaysians are attracted to book genre on Language, literature, and science. While the Japanese are more interested in the book genre of social sciences and hobbies/art. The similarity between Malaysian and Japanese are that both societies also favors book genre of literature. However, it is possible that the themes of literary genre in Japan and Malaysia are very different. The result of this study can be used to identify the differences between Malaysian and Japanese reading habits as well as used for formulating strategies to changed Malaysian reading habits toward the style of Japanese reading habits.
  • Caring but sharing unintentionally: Lobbying for innovations and the leakage of knowledge
    When firms engage in lobbying, their intended outcome is a regulatory change that benefits them. However, prior literature suggests that there may also be an unintended outcome of lobbying--the leakage of knowledge to competitors. In this paper, I explore when the intended and the unintended outcomes are more likely by theorizing about the relationship between lobbying and innovation. I predict that innovations that are novel are more likely to benefit from the intended regulatory changes. However, innovations that use knowledge uniquely possessed by a few firms are more likely to be compromised by the leakage of knowledge that happens during lobbying. I use new data from 1999-2013 on public U.S. firms that engaged in lobbying to federal agencies, the regulatory changes made by federal agencies, and the 16,000 patents applied for by those firms. I employ unsupervised machine learning (Doc2Vec) to measure knowledge leakage and an instrumental variable 2SLS mediation analyses to test the theory. The results suggest that the intended regulatory changes that follow lobbying can benefit innovations by facilitating wider adoption. However, unique technological knowledge that only a few firms possess may be expropriated by competitors during the process of lobbying. Overall, this paper demonstrates that fundamental aspects of innovation-- such as institutional change, knowledge transfer, and technology adoption--are closely related to lobbying, a form of nonmarket activity.
  • Mental health and loneliness in Scottish schools: A multilevel analysis of data from the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study
    Adolescent loneliness and poor mental health represent dual public health concerns. Yet, associations between loneliness and mental health, and critically, how these unfold in school settings are less understood. Framed by social ecological theory, this study aimed to identify key predictors of adolescent mental health, and examine school-level variation in the relationship between loneliness and mental health. Cross-sectional data on adolescents from the 2018 wave of the Health Behaviour in School-aged Children study (HBSC) in Scotland were used (N = 5,286). Mental health was measured as a composite variable containing items assessing: nervousness, irritability, sleep difficulties and feeling low. Loneliness was measured via a single item assessing how often adolescents felt 'left out'. Multilevel models were used to identify key social ecological predictors of mental health, associations with loneliness, and between-school variation. Loneliness, as well as demographic, social, and school factors, were found to be associated with mental health. Schools accounted for around 8% of the variation in adolescents' mental health, and the between-school difference in mental health was greater among adolescents with high levels of loneliness. Additionally, the negative effect of loneliness on mental health was stronger in schools with lower average mental health scores. The findings suggest that schools can play an important role in shaping adolescent mental health. Our study uniquely identifies that school-based interventions targeting mental health may be especially necessary among lonely adolescents, and programmes aimed at tackling loneliness may be more beneficial in schools with poorer mental health.
  • Improving abortion underreporting in the United States: a cognitive interview study
    Background: Abortion is a difficult-to-measure behavior with extensive survey underreporting, which compromises the ability to study and monitor abortion. The purpose of this study was to improve our understanding of how women interpret and respond to survey items asking if they have ever had an abortion. Methods: We developed multiple new questions hypothesized to improve abortion reporting, using approaches that aim to clarify which experiences to report as an induced abortion; reduce the stigma and sensitivity of induced abortion; reduce the sense of intrusiveness of asking about abortion; and increase the motivation to report. We conducted cognitive interviews with cisgender women aged 18-49 in two US states (N=64) to iteratively assess these new approaches and questions for improving abortion reporting. Results: Our findings suggest that including abortion as part of a list of other sexual and reproductive health services, asking a yes/no question about lifetime experience of abortion instead of asking about number of abortions, and developing an improved introduction to abortion questions may help to elicit more accurate survey reports. Conclusions: Opportunities exist to improve survey measurement of abortion. Reducing underreporting of abortion in surveys has the potential to improve sexual and reproductive health research that relies on pregnancy histories.
  • Less is more or more is more? Union dissolution and re-partnering as an engine for fertility in a demographic forerunner context - a register based completed cohort fertility approach
    Extensive literature theorizes the role of re-partnering on cohort fertility and whether union dissolution can be an engine for fertility. A large share of higher-order unions is non-marital cohabitations. Yet, most previous completed cohort fertility studies on the topic analyze marital unions only and none have measured cohabitations using population-level data. We use Finnish register data to enumerate every birth, marriage, and cohabitation from ages 18-46 in the 1969-1972 birth cohorts, and analyze the relationship between the number of unions and cohort fertility for men and women using Poisson regression. We show that re-partnering is driven by cohabitations. Re-marriage is positively associated with cohort fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact marriage. However, when measured using marriages as well as non-marital cohabitations, re-partnering is negatively associated with fertility, compared to individuals in a single intact union. This negative association increases with socioeconomic status. "Serial cohabitation" is a strong predictor of low fertility. Men see a slight "re-marriage premium" in fertility and a (non-marital) "re-partnering penalty," compared to women. Thus, re-partnering is likely not an efficient engine for fertility. Further, marriage and cohabitation are far from indistinguishable in a country often described as a second demographic transition forerunner.
  • Consent to Data Linkage for Different Data Domains - The Role of Question Order, Question Wording, and Incentives
    As our modern world has become increasingly digitalized, various types of data from different data domains are available that can enrich survey data. To link survey data to other sources, consent from the survey respondents is required. This article compares consent to data linkage requests for seven data domains: administrative data, smartphone usage data, bank data, biomarkers, Facebook data, health insurance data, and sensor data. We experimentally explore three factors of interest to survey designers seeking to maximize consent rates: consent question order, consent question wording, and incentives. The results of the study using a German online sample (n = 3,374) show that survey respondents have a relatively high probability of consent to share smartphone usage data, Facebook data, and biomarkers, while they are least likely to share their bank data in a survey. Of the three experimental factors, only the consent question order affected consent rates significantly. Additionally, the study investigated the interactions between the three experimental manipulations and the seven data domains, of which only the interaction between the data domains and the consent question order showed a consistent significant effect.
  • Digital discretion and public administration in Africa: Implications for the use of artificial intelligence
    The digitalisation of public services is implicated in fundamental changes to how civil servants make decisions and exercise discretion. Most significant has been a shift in responsibility away from 'street-level bureaucrats' to 'system-level bureaucrats'; a technology-savvy community of officials, consultants and private enterprises involved in the design of information technology systems and associated rules. The relatively recent inclusion of artificial intelligence (AI) and data-driven algorithms raises new questions about the conflation of policy formulation and system development activities, but also intensifies concerns about the epistemic dependence and policy alienation of public officials. African public administrations are in an especially vulnerable position with respect to the adoption of AI, and so this chapter seeks to synthesise lessons from previous digital implementations on the continent, and considers the implications for AI use. Four broad considerations emerge from the review of literature: Integrity of recommendations provided by decision-support systems, including how they are influenced by local organisational practices and the reliability of underlying infrastructures; Inclusive decision-making that balances the (assumed) objectivity of data-driven algorithms and the influence of different stakeholder groups; Exception and accountability in how digital and AI platforms are funded, developed, implemented and used; and a Complete understanding of people and events through the integration of traditionally dispersed data sources and systems, and how policy actors seek to mitigate the risks associated with this aspiration.
  • Situating Politics: Spatial Heterogeneity and the Study of Political History
    While quantitative methods are routinely used to examine historical materials, critics take issue with the use of global regression models that attach a single parameter to each predictor, thereby ignoring the effects of time and space, which together define the context in which historical events unfold. This problem can be addressed by allowing for parameter heterogeneity, as highlighted by the proliferation of work on the use of time-varying parameter models. In this paper, I show how this approach can be extended to the case of spatial data using spatially-varying coefficient models, with an eye toward the study of electoral politics, where the use of spatial data is especially common in historical settings. Toward this end, I revisit a critical case in the field of quantitative history: the rise of electoral Populism in the American West in the period between 1890 and 1896. Upending popular narratives about the correlates of third- party support in the late nineteenth century, I show that the association between third- party vote share and traditional predictors such as economic hardship and ethnic composition varied considerably from one place to the next, giving rise to distinct varieties of electoral Populism--a finding that is missed by global models, which mistake the mathematically particular for the historically general. These findings have important theoretical and empirical implications for the study of political action in a world where parameter heterogeneity is increasingly recognized as a standard feature of modern social science.
  • Making and Using AI in the Library: Creating a BERT Model at the National Library of Sweden
    How can novel AI techniques be made and put to use in the library? Combining methods from data and library science, this article focuses on Natural Language Processing technologies in especially national libraries. It explains how the National Library of Sweden's collections enabled the development of a new BERT language model for Swedish. It also outlines specific use cases for the model in the context of academic libraries, detailing strategies for how such a model could make digital collections available for new forms of research: from automated classification to enhanced searchability and improved OCR cohesion. Highlighting the potential for cross-fertilizing AI with libraries, the conclusion suggests that while AI may transform the workings of the library, libraries can also have a key role to play in the future development of AI.
  • Integrationists, Critical Europeanists and Pessimist Europeanists: Attitudinal mindsets on the EU among German students
    We investigate the mindsets on the EU of students enrolled in a German university. We conducted an online survey among students of a German university (N=730) and asked them closed questions on the EU enlargement, the allocation of authority at the EU level, the way democracy works at the EU level and an open question on their wish for the future of the EU. We then ran a latent class analysis of the recoded answer categories from the open question and of our set of closed questions. Our three-class solution highlights variation in support of the EU among students. Indeed, while the vast majority of the respondents show highly supportive attitudes toward the EU, we can distinguish between "Integrationists" (in favour of pursuing the EU integration project; 68% of the sample), "Critical Europeanists" (supportive of the EU but dissatisfied with the way democracy works at the EU level; 20,50% of the sample) and "Pessimist Europeanists" (supportive of the EU but afraid of the implosion of the EU; 11% of the sample). A further analysis of the narratives provided by members of each class to the open question enables us to shed light on variation within each latent class. In particular, we find variation (1) in the dimensions and policies the EU should further integrate according to the Europeanists, (2) in the types of EU institutions to be further democratised and strategies to improve the democratisation of the EU regime according to the Critical Europeanists and (3) in strategies the EU should follow to avoid its implosion according to the Pessimist Europeanists. Our study highlights the importance of the use of non-standardised measures and mixed-methods data collection for grasping citizens' mindset on the EU in its multidimensionality and complexity.
  • Estadios y ?Equilibrio? Soberania Nacional Pre-politica; Dominio de Escenario Societal-interno; Error ultimo en Diseno de Politica Exterior de Estado: Chile y Acciones Exteriores conflictuales con Peru y Bolivia: Siglo XIX a XXI
    "Politica Exterior", al interior de la Investigacion Social-Empirica en el Area del Poder, constituye escenario intelectual, racional y factual, fronterizo-difuso; asi entendida, la cuestion como objeto, su abordaje requiere internalizacion como competencia, de insumos angulares de la actividad: Analisis Politico; a saber: uso de conceptos adecuados y paralelo empleo de criterios de observacion pertinentes. Aqui, a partir de herramientas conceptuales decisivas, se re-construye caracterizando, un "conjunto procesal de vinculacion exterior conflictual" --compuesto por hitos y actividades1 respecto sucesos con alcance inter e intra-nacional-- entre Chile, Peru y Bolivia, bajo los siglos XIX, XX y XXI. Lo anterior, persiguiendo --desde la articulacion de una hipotesis de envergadura--, el lograr la entrega de un artefacto teoretico, respecto hechos historico-politicos, dotado de potencia para co-ordenar, situar fenomenos, a la vez, que constituyendo un rendimiento intelectual tipo: material-informe, con cariz analitico e interpretativo.
  • Inter-Group Relations and Support for Democratization: Evidence from Hong Kong
    What drives ordinary citizens to participate in costly pro-democracy endeavors? Conventional theories of democratization emphasize the economic or political conflicts between citizens and elites. This article suggests a different mechanism of mobilization based on inter-group relations. We argue that as a pro-majoritarian institution, democracy may be sought after by members of a disenfranchised majority as a way to protect their interests and identity against perceived economic or political threats posed by certain minority outgroups. We evaluate this argument by drawing evidence from Hong Kong, a city that has recently witnessed major waves of pro-democracy uprisings. Two experimental studies on local university students reveal that subjects' attitudes toward the mainland Chinese visitors and immigrants are causally related to their support for democratization. Observational evidence from surveys and elections further shows that pro-democracy attitudes are stronger in areas that recently experienced a large influx of mainland Chinese. These findings underscore the powerful role of group-based sentiments in episodes of democratization.
  • Population Externalities and Optimal Social Policy
    If fertility is not chosen in a socially optimal way, and if policies to directly target fertility are ineffective or politically infeasible, then public policies that affect fertility could have important welfare consequences through the fertility channel. We refer to these effects as population externalities, and in this paper we focus on one important variable that may have a causal impact on fertility: the education of potential parents. If increased education causes families to have fewer children, then a government would want to increase college tuition subsidies in the presence of environmental externalities such as climate change, to indirectly discourage families from having children who will generate future environmental costs. Alternatively, if fertility is inefficiently low, due to imperfect parental altruism for example, governments will want to lower tuition subsidies to encourage child-bearing. We present a simple model of the college enrollment decision and its fertility impacts, and show that such population externalities are quantitatively important: the optimal subsidy increases by about $5000 per year with climate change, and decreases by over $7000 per year with imperfect parental altruism. Our paper demonstrates how public economics can incorporate population externalities, and that such externalities can have significant impacts on optimal policy.
  • Quellen des . Eine politische Soziologie der Corona-Proteste in Baden-Wurttemberg
    The present study was guided by two research-guiding questions: a) What are the special characteristics of the Querdenken movement in Baden-Wurttemberg? b) Why is the Querdenken movement so strongly rooted in Baden-Wurttemberg? An explorative mixed-methods approach was chosen for our research. By means of qualitative interviews with Corona critics, analyses of field experts, ethnographic observations, and a secondary analysis of our quantitative survey in Telegram groups, we drew conclusions and tentative analyses about the Querdenken movement in the political map of Baden-Wurttemberg.
  • How Much Do We Value Future Generations? Climate Change, Debt, and Attitudes towards Policies for Improving Future Lives
    Do people care much about future generations? Moral philosophers argue that we should, but it is not clear that laypeople agree. Humanity's thus-far inadequate efforts to address climate change, for example, could be taken as a sign that people are unconcerned about the well-being of future generations. An alternative explanation is that the lack of action is due to public scepticism about climate policies' effectiveness, rather than the discounting of future lives per se. Based on surveys and survey experiments with representative samples of respondents in four countries--Sweden, Spain, South Korea, and China--we find that most people say they care about future generations, and would even be willing to reduce their standard of living so that people can enjoy better lives in the future. Many do not, however, support policies for reducing either global warming or the national debt--both of which would impose a net cost on current generations for the benefit of future generations. We show that a significant part of the public's apparent lack of concern for future generations is actually due to disbelief or distrust in the likely benefits of government actions.
  • Prospects of fish supply-demand and its implications for food and nutrition security in Egypt
    Aquaculture plays an increasingly important role in meeting the rising global demand for fish fuelled by economic and demographic growth. However, in many middle income countries, the growth of aquaculture is constrained by rising labor costs, limited input supply, environmental concerns, and infectious diseases. In this paper, we developed a multi species, multi sector equilibrium model and applied it to the fishery sector of Egypt, a leading aquaculture producer in Africa, to examine these barriers. Projection results show that rising wage rates would slow down the growth of labour-intensive aquaculture compared to those that use relatively less labour. The demand for feed, seed inputs and water use for aquaculture would substantially increase. The results also show that disease outbreaks would possibly affect production sectors via output reduction and also consumers via increases in fish price. Our findings suggest that stabilising the prices of feed and seed, investments in disease control and input use efficiency improvement technologies, including water use, are important while the overall effectiveness of tax instruments is modest. Though calibrated to Egypt, our approach can be applied to other middle size national aquaculture industries.
  • A Review of economic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in fisheries and aquaculture
    Focusing on economic methods, this study provides a comprehensive review of the current research in fisheries and aquaculture within the context of climate change. We find there has been remarkable progress in evaluating the biophysical impacts of climate change on fish. However, the effect those impacts have on future fish stocks, yields, and dynamics are less understood. Climate change adaptation strategies in fisheries and aquaculture lack quantitative assessment, while current vulnerability indices rely heavily on subjective weighting schemes. Economic studies involving fisheries and aquaculture have seen some recent advancements but can be improved through incorporating methods from other disciplines, notably agricultural economics. Relative to its increasingly large role in global fish supply, the aquaculture sector is found to be under-represented in the economic literature. We suggest that future research in fisheries and aquaculture should further incorporate methods from agricultural economics, focus on the economics of aquaculture, and refine interdisciplinary research methods such as bioeconomic modelling.
  • Future scenarios of fish supply and demand for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: An analysis with the AsiaFish model
    Bangladesh has made significant progress in social and economic development in recent years, but micronutrient deficiencies and poor dietary diversity remain a significant challenge. This paper developed eight scenarios to explore fish supply-demand futures in Bangladesh using the AsiaFish model, with special emphasis on the role of fish in micronutrient supply to address the nation's malnutrition and nutrition security challenges. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario followed historical trends for exogenous variables used in the model. The seven alternative scenarios explored were: the implications of increase productivity of farmed tilapia, pangasius and rohu carp (AS1); productivity changes in hilsa production (AS2); improvements in the quality of feeds (AS3); reduction in the price of plant-based feeds (AS4); disease outbreak in farmed shrimps and prawns (AS5); and climate change impact (AS6) and stagnant capture fisheries (AS7). The BAU scenario indicates that aquaculture growth will be a prominent contribution to increasing total fish supply and demand and fish exports to 2040. Apart from the scenarios that are favourable to aquaculture sector development, other alternative scenarios highlighted the lower growth rate of capture fisheries and aquaculture compared to BAU, resulting in declining in per capita fish consumption, fish exports and nutrient supply from fish as a consequence. Increased availability of aquaculture fish can slightly compensate for the lower growth of capture fisheries in term of their nutrition quality and dietary diversity, particularly for poor consumers. Policies towards sustaining fisheries and a nutrition-sensitive approach to aquaculture is recommended as both capture fisheries and aquaculture are essential for sustaining healthy and nutritious diets in Bangladesh.
  • "I Didn't Know Ace Was a Thing": Bisexuality and Pansexuality as Identity Pathways in Asexual Identity Formation
    Identity formation for asexual people can be complicated by limited societal awareness of asexualities. Consequently, people who eventually identify as asexual often adopt other sexual identities in their early lives. In this paper, we extend sexual identity development theory by analyzing the identity trajectories of asexual people who once identified as bisexual or pansexual. Quantitative data suggests that about half of asexual respondents once identified as bisexual or pansexual and a third closely associate with bisexual or pansexual terminology. Qualitative data supports these findings, revealing that bisexuality, pansexuality, and asexuality are not always seen as mutually exclusive categories by asexual individuals. We argue that the intelligibility of bi-/pansexuality positions them as identity pathways for many asexual individuals who experience equal (albeit little to no) attractions toward men and women.
  • Discerning between Ambiguity and Ambivalence Using Range Responses
    This brief note introduces the use of a range of responses rather than a single response for an opinion survey question. The methodological advantage of collecting this additional information is that it can help discern between ambiguity and ambivalence in situations where it is valuable to further investigate the nature of a respondent's indecision.
  • Marginalized Communities are Underrepresented as Creative Contributors
    We investigate the socially inferred gender and racial/ethnic identities of influential creative artists in four domains. Women make up 51% of the U.S. population but are underrepresented in contemporary art (28%), fashion (45%), box office film (27%), and popular music (17%). Marginalized racial/ethnic groups make up 39% of the U.S. population yet comprise approximately half that figure in contemporary art (22%), fashion (22%), and film (19%). Black musical artists have higher representation (48%), though higher representation does not equate with equity and inclusion. As for intersectional identity, white men are overrepresented in all four domains by factors ranging from 1.4 to 2 as compared to the U.S. population, and most other gender-racial/ethnic groups are further minoritized. Our study is the first comprehensive, comparative, empirical look at intersectional identity across creative fields. The exclusion of marginalized individuals, including those who are women, American Indian / Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Latinx, and Native Hawaiian / Pacific Islander, is severe. The lack of self-expressed demographic data is a challenge, as is the erasure of certain identity groups from the American Community Survey, including agender, gender noncomforming, nonbinary, and transgender individuals. These are challenges that, if addressed, would enhance our collective understanding of diversity in creative fields. Efforts taken by executives, influencers, and other power brokers to make creative fields more diverse, equitable, and inclusive would amplify the many well-documented benefits of art to individuals and to society.
  • Origins and consequences of long ties in social networks
    Social networks play a predominant role in determining how information spreads between individuals. Previous works suggest that long ties, which connect people who do not share any mutual contact, provide access to valuable information on economic opportunities. However, no population-scale study has determined how long ties relate to economic outcomes and how such ties are formed. Using a novel dataset from Facebook, we reconstruct the network of interactions between users and we uncover a strong relationship between the share of long ties and economic outcomes at the local level in the United States and in Mexico. Administrative units with a higher proportion of long ties have higher incomes, higher economic mobility, lower unemployment rates and higher wealth, even after adjusting for potential confounders of these outcomes. In contrast to the weak tie theory, we find that having stronger long ties is associated with better economic outcomes. Furthermore, we discover that users with a higher proportion of long ties are more likely to have migrated between US states, to have transferred to a different high school, and to have attended college outside of their home state. Taken together, these results suggest that long ties contribute to economic prosperity and highlight the role played by disruptive life events in the formation of these ties.
  • The Future of Climate Resilience in Wheat
    As the most widely cultivated crop globally - providing 20% of all human calories and protein - there is an urgent need to increase wheat's resilience to harsher climates [1]. The risk of simultaneous crop failures due to heat and/or drought in global "breadbaskets" has risen and is projected to rise further [2-4]. Severe water scarcity events are predicted for up to 60% of the world's wheat-growing areas by the end of this century [5]. Furthermore, for each 1degC increase in average seasonal temperature, it is predicted that wheat yields will decrease by 6% on average globally, and much more in some already marginal environments where wheat is a traditional staple food [6,7]. At the current rate of yield gain, wheat production is predicted to fall well short of future demand due to population growth alone. Emerging environmental threats only make the challenge harder. On top of this, demand by consumers, farmers and the food industry is predicted to increase due to wheat's high grain-protein content relative to other cereals, wide growing range and adaptability to most environmental stresses. Since farmer adoption of improved cultivars is a critical part of adaptation [8], new and more targeted breeding efforts are needed to ensure that wheat's climate resilience is maximized [9-11]. This article briefly outlines research that has been conducted and current research needs to develop climate resilient wheat.
  • The impact of COVID-19 on hunters in Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos: a qualitative analysis
    The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated efforts to engage critically with forest-adjacent, rural, communities who rely on wildlife. In this study, we interviewed 109 hunters of wildlife across Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos regarding the effect the COVID-19 pandemic has had on them individually, as well as more generally within their communities. We found that negative economic impacts such as loss of employment and constrained finances due to rising prices was an especially prevalent theme due to city-wide lockdowns, factory closures, and border closures. In Vietnam, hunting was stated to have increased as young men were forced to return to their villages to work; however, trade in wildlife was believed to have decreased due to the inability of middlemen traders to easily leave urban spaces or cross-country lines. This theme of barriers to trade was found in Cambodia and Laos as well. Our results show the importance of establishing sustainable, non-wildlife-dependent livelihoods within rural communities, to mitigate hunting and mitigate the potential for emerging infectious disease transmission. Overall, our results show the value in engaging with hunters to understand locally and spatially-specific trends, and provide direction for future avenues of research.
  • Modeling poultry and maize sector interactions in Southern Africa under a changing climate
    * This study explores how regional-level interactions of livestock and crop sectors influence the capacity of a southern Africa sub-region to meet its future demand for livestock-derived foods. * It uses a spatial equilibrium modeling framework to simulate regional trade in poultry and maize products in Malawi, Mozambique, South Africa, and Zambia. * Model outputs on the demand, production, and trade of poultry products and maize are compared for a baseline and an alternative future scenario representing drought conditions. * The study's abstraction of a regional approach to livestock and feed sector interactions in the selected region highlights the role of markets in addressing cross-boundary challenges related to food demand expansion and resource management. * Results imply that the study countries could benefit from addressing their growing demands for livestock-derived foods using a harmonized approach. Further, regional livestock markets may offer cushioning effects to the impacts of climate change in at least one of the countries. * However, improved quality data and an enhanced specification of the analytical model to better account for the nuances of livestock and feed trade in the region and for varied scenarios of future climate change will be needed, to extend the current study to practical policy application.
  • Establishing priorities for Pennsylvania community flood resilience
    This white paper provides an overview of priorities related to community resilience to flooding that emerged during a 27 September 2019 meeting with local, regional and state representatives in Selinsgrove, Pennsylvania. The document compiles workshop details, participants and a summary of discussions and outcomes. It does not, however, attempt to provide a comprehensive listing of every topic raised by participants. In addition, this workshop was held before the advent of covid-19; the impacts of this pandemic are not addressed in this document.
  • Mapping Nefarious Social Media Actors to Speed-up Covid-19 Fact-checking
    This report presents the outcomes of a project aimed at developing and testing a prototype tool that supports and speeds-up the work of fact-checkers and de-bunkers by surfacing and ranking potentially problematic information circulated on social media with a content-agnostic approach. The tool itself is the result of a multi-year research activity carried on within the Mapping Italian News Research Program of the University of Urbino Carlo Bo to study the strategies, tactics and goals of influence operations aimed at manipulating the Italian public opinion by exploiting the vulnerabilities of the contemporary media ecosystem. This research activity led to developing original studies, public reports, new methods, maps and tools employed to study the activity of Italian nefarious social media actors aimed at amplifying the reach and impact of problematic information by coordinating their efforts. Tracking these actors proved instrumental to observe the "infodemic" unraveling during the early days of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Combining this existing knowledge with a range of original tools and data sources provided by Meta's Facebook Open Research Initiative (Fort) and by The International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN) at Poynter, the report: documents those early days by highlighting a list of widely viewed and interacted links circulated on Facebook; traces the establishment, growth and evolution of Italian covid-skeptic coordinated networks on Facebook; presents a comprehensive and updated map of the activities performed by these networks of nefarious social media actors; unveils a set of original tactics and strategies employed by these actors to adjust their operations to the mitigation efforts adopted by social media platforms to reduce the spread of problematic information; describes the circulation of three specific piece of problematic information; provides an overview of the outcomes of the testing phase (carried out in collaboration with of a prototype tool that surfaces and ranks potentially problematic information circulated on social media with a content-agnostic approach.
  • Towards more inclusive metrics and open science to measure research assessment in Earth and natural sciences
    Science's success and effect measures are built on a system that prioritizes citations and impact factors. These measurements are inaccurate and biased against already under-represented groups, and they fail to convey the range of individuals' significant scientific contributions, especially open science. We argue for a transition in this out-of-date value system that promotes science by promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion. To achieve systemic change, it will necessitate a concerted effort led by academic leaders and administrators.
  • Towards proper evaluation of book publishing in the social sciences
    Books are important in the social sciences. Monographs and edited books allow for presenting original research based on methodologies or forms of collaboration that the format of the journal article does not serve as appropriately. Books are also used to engage directly with society. This chapter first introduces book publishing in the social sciences as a diversity of genres, purposes, and audiences. We then limit the scope to peer-reviewed scholarly book publishing and describe how publication patterns differ among the disciplines of the social sciences in the dimensions of books versus journal articles and national versus international publishing. Then we focus on the structure of the scholarly book publishing market with particular attention to developments towards open access publishing. The chapter ends with our suggestions for principles that can guide proper evaluation of book publishing in the social sciences.
  • Gender, Sexuality, and Religion: A Critical Integrative Review and Agenda for Future Research
    This article sets forth a critical integrative review of the study of gender, sexuality, and religion. Treating religion as a cause, an effect, and an intermediary factor in relation to gender and sexuality, it draws on and synthesizes multiple theoretical approaches including gender and queer lenses on religion, cultural analysis, and intersectionality. The article is structured around ten big-picture questions about gender, sexuality, and religion and argues that gender and sexuality are a key symbolic boundary and cultural divide in religious and political life in the United States and around the world. It concludes with an agenda for future research.
  • The Students' Attitudes towards the NESTs versus NNESTs and their Impacts on the Students' Motivations to Learn English Language at KAU
    Motivation is one of the crucial aspects of second language acquisition. Students' motivation can be influenced by their teachers. The present study aims to investigate the impact of the two types of teachers on EFL learners' motivations to learn English. These are NESTs (Native English-speaking teachers) and NNESTs (native English-speaking teachers). Hence, it examines learners' attitudes and perceptions towards the two types of teachers. This study employed a mixed method by distributing a questionnaire contains quantitative and qualitative tools. It consists of twenty items of Likert scales and two open-ended questions. The present study subjects are 31 female students at King Abdulaziz University in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The results of the study demonstrate that learners have a positive attitude toward NESTs and NNESTs. Despite that, the tendency to learn with NNESTs is higher than NESTs. The findings also show that both types of teachers motivate students to learn English. Moreover, it suggests that the methodology and teachers' personalities are more important than the teachers' nativeness.
  • Reciprocal altruism may have evolved by accident
    The most accepted explanation for the evolution of reciprocal altruism is based on cooperative reciprocators engaged in intertemporal choice. Here, we parsimoniously dismiss this narrative and suggest a new hypothesis based on random encounters of selfish individuals that result in theft. Theft can coexist with passive reactions on the victims, as it does not jeopardize survival and reproduction in times of abundance. As a result, offspring with psychological adaptations of not reacting to theft can become reliable reciprocators amid scarcity.
  • A Descriptive Analysis of Non-obligatory Shifts in Three Disney Animated Films Dubbed into Modern Standard Arabic
    This qualitative quantitative descriptive-analytical study aimed to describe the non-obligatory shifts employed in three English Disney animated films dubbed into MSA by applying Toury's (1995/2012) normative model and shifts introduced in the course of his applied case studies. The researcher described and analyzed preliminary, initial and operational norms (non-obligatory shifts) employed on the level of three textual segments: the lexical-semantic, the stylistic, and the prosodic. The researcher compared those shifts with the original choices in the English versions of three selected Disney animated films. In the light of Toury's theory (1995/2012), the current study investigated the hypothesis that the accepted socio-cultural, ideological, and linguistic norms of the Arabic culture directed the choices of the non-obligatory shifts chosen by the Arabic dubbers of English Disney animations dubbed into MSA. This investigation was conducted in application to three case studies, namely, Tangled (2010), Frozen (2013) and Big Hero 6 (2014). In order to decide the most frequently used shifts in the process of dubbing, the frequency rate of each non-obligatory shift was calculated to determine the highest frequently used shift. The study came to the conclusion that there is a direct relationship between the non-obligatory shifts (operational norms) applied during dubbing on the one hand and the socio-cultural, ideological, and linguistic norms imposed by the target culture on the other hand. Those target culture norms governed not only the operational choices but also the preliminary choices of the three selected Disney animated films dubbed into MSA. Affected by the preliminary and operational norms, Arab dubbers' tendency towards producing acceptable rather than adequate translations decided the initial norms.
  • Phonological Constraints on the Utterance of L2 Clusters by Saudi ESL Learners
    The field of L2 phonology did not receive much research compared to the other linguistic domains. To add to the field and expand the current literature, the present paper's goal was to examine the impact of syllable structure differences between Arabic and English in uttering L2 English consonant clusters. The following research question was aimed to be answered: Do the differences between two languages' syllable structure cause production difficulties in the consonant cluster to Saudi Arabian learners of English? The subjects of this investigation were L2 English learners from Saudi with intermediate proficiency levels in English. Applying the descriptive correlational type of research model, the results showed that learners' production is mainly influenced by their native language-specific phonological features. The learners' production of targeted L2 consonant clusters seemed to mirror their underlying phonological system, and syllables structures were modified to match their native Arabic phonological system as a result of language transfer. These findings should be taken into account by L2 speech educators as such speech difficulty is anticipated.